Preview: UFC on ESPN 57 ‘Cannonier vs. Imavov’

After its June 1 trip to Newark, New Jersey, for UFC 302, the Ultimate Fighting Championship stays on the road in Louisville, Kentucky, for UFC on ESPN 57—a show that promises a lot more violence on Saturday at the KFC Yum! Center. Major stakes are mostly limited to the top two bouts. Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov square off in a main event that could thrust the winner into the middleweight championship picture, while former light heavyweight title challenger Dominick Reyes looks to stop his current skid against Dustin Jacoby in the co-headliner at 205 pounds. Beyond that, the main draw was clearly booked for action. Bantamweight prodigy Raul Rosas Jr. gets a potentially tough test against veteran Ricky Turcios before a parade of matches between fighters who either hunt the knockout or get knocked out themselves.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 57 “Cannonier vs. Imavov” preview:

Middleweights

#4 MW | Jared Cannonier (17-6, 10-6 UFC) vs. #7 MW | Nassourdine Imavov (13-4, 5-2 UFC)

ODDS: Imavov (-125), Cannonier (+105)

With the churn at the top of the UFC’s middleweight division opening up the weight class for some former title challengers, now would be a really good time for Cannonier to score an impressive victory. Cannonier came to the UFC as a fairly unremarkable heavyweight who eventually cut down to light heavyweight, but it was only when he cut down to middleweight in 2018 that all of his potential seemed to get fully unlocked. Cannonier literally looked like an entirely different fighter in his win over David Branch, as he was absolutely shredded and suddenly had the horsepower to run through a former top contender. From there, Cannonier slowly worked his way up to a title shot against Israel Adesanya, mostly on the back of his physicality. There were many times where “The Killa Gorilla” looked overmatched technically, but his willingness to stay patient, survive and throw with plenty of power eventually found him the victory more often than not. Unfortunately, Cannonier’s title fight against Adesanya was the clearest example of that patience serving as a double-edged sword, as “The Last Stylebender” had the skill to stay safe without giving him much of an opportunity to spring into action over five uneventful rounds. Cannonier seems to have learned from the experience. He’s still far from the highest-output fighter, but wins over Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori showed that he’s now more willing to stay on his opponents and keep prying the fight open. Unfortunately, it has taken Cannonier a year to return and build on his performance against Vettori thanks to a knee injury, and there is a worry that his physically dependent approach could turn south at any time now that he’s in his 40s. For now, the table is set for Cannonier to get back in the title picture if he shows out against Imavov.

Imavov’s a fascinating fighter who’s still a bit hard to calibrate, as he has both overachieved and underachieved at certain points in his UFC career while still being on the right side of 30. Imavov’s resume wasn’t the strongest ahead of his 2020 UFC debut, and the worry was that the Dagestan-born Frenchman had a level of confidence that would come back to bite him against better competition. Imavov’s approach has been built around staying slick from range and trying to outwrestle his opponents when that goes sour, and on the regional scene, it felt like he was finding a lot of success through his sheer physicality. That’s still somewhat true in the UFC, but it has been impressive just how well that physicality has held up. It’s understandable in retrospect that Imavov would struggle against the horsepower of Phil Hawes in what wound up as his first UFC loss, but he rebounded in shockingly successful fashion against Ian Heinisch, Edmen Shahbazyan and Joaquin Buckley. That string of wins has made Imavov a mainstay in the UFC’s middleweight rankings, but his last few performances have been a mixed bag. A loss against Strickland to kick off 2023 was a poor look, as Imavov seemed to quickly get stalled out and drowned in the Californian’s pressure. However, Imavov then looked dominant against Chris Curtis before scoring a decision win over Roman Dolidze in February. The Dolidze victory, in particular, showed off a lot of positives and negatives. It was impressive that Imavov was able to bully an opponent best known for his ability to bully others, but the result was an ugly fight where neither his offensive output nor gas tank looked particularly impressive. It does seem like Imavov’s level of success and comfort depends a great deal on his ability to physically overwhelm his opponents, which doesn’t appear to set him up well against what might be the best athlete in the division in terms of sheer horsepower. Even if Imavov finds some success early as a better technical wrestler, it’s unclear if he has the gas tank to put together five strong rounds worth of control. Past the age concerns, this looks like a strong opportunity for Cannonier to gut out a win. The pick is Cannonier via fifth-round stoppage.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Imavov
Jacoby vs. Reyes
Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios
Ferreira vs. Stoltzfus
Marquez vs. Reese
Baeza vs. Soriano
The Prelims