Preview: UFC on ESPN 57 ‘Cannonier vs. Imavov’

Welterweights

Miguel Baeza (10-3, 3-3 UFC) vs. Punahele Soriano (9-4, 3-4 UFC)

ODDS: Baeza (-198), Soriano (+164)

Two welterweights look for a badly needed win in a fight that should hopefully provide some fireworks. It’s hard to tell exactly why things have suddenly gone south for Soriano, who still has all the individual skills for greatness. Soriano’s thudding knockout power gets most of the headlines, but even his losses showed him to be a surprisingly adept wrestler and scrambler, suggesting that things would click excellently once the Hawaiian gained some more experience. Unfortunately, he has mostly settled into becoming a headhunting puncher while losing a lot of his cardio. He can cause some early trouble for opponents, but Soriano’s last few performances have seen him fade out of fights before tiring and getting knocked out. Now comes a cut down to 170 pounds in what seems like a last-ditch effort for a win against Baeza, who’s also looking to regain some lost hype. Baeza’s UFC career got off to a hot start. Relatively untested prior to his 2019 showing on the Contender Series, “Caramel Thunder” racked up three straight finishes upon hitting the Octagon, showing off his skill as a sniper and even knocking out Matt Brown. Baeza’s first loss, in a 2021 war against Santiago Ponzinibbio, came in an excellent enough fight that it figured to still raise his profile, but it instead seems to have set the stage for his subsequent two losses. Baeza has done well enough to start, but if opponents hang around long enough to feel him out, there tends to be a breaking point where he loses momentum and things start to spiral out of control. If Soriano comes into this fight looking sharp, his power and physicality—particularly now down a weight class—could blow through Baeza’s style quickly and brutally. However, given Soriano’s last few showings, the weight cut might mean he just runs himself out of this fight faster while trying to track down a quicker opponent. The pick is Baeza via third-round stoppage.

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Cannonier vs. Imavov
Jacoby vs. Reyes
Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios
Ferreira vs. Stoltzfus
Marquez vs. Reese
Baeza vs. Soriano
The Prelims