UFC News & FeaturesThe Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Salt Lake City with a surprisingly strong preliminary slate at the Delta Center. Two big fights top the UFC 307 undercard, as Joaquin Buckley attempts to break through to welterweight contention against Stephen Thompson and rising young women’s strawweight Iasmin Lucindo gets thrown into the fire against fringe contender Marina Rodriguez. Further down the lineup, two-time women’s strawweight champion Carla Esparza caps off an underrated run in MMA in her retirement fight against Tecia Pennington, and Ovince St. Preux looks to get an unlikely late-career winning streak going against Ryan Spann at 205 pounds.
Now to the preview for the UFC 307 “Pereira vs. Rountree” prelims:
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Welterweights
#11 WW | Joaquin Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) vs. #9 WW | Stephen Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC)ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)
He might yet hit a ceiling in his new weight class, but Buckley’s cut down to welterweight has paid a ton of dividends thus far. A 2020 signing, Buckley stood out as a middleweight prospect to watch even before he became an overnight sensation, going viral with one of most spectacular knockouts in UFC history, a jumping spinning back kick to beat Impa Kasanganay in Buckley’s second UFC fight. Both the UFC and Buckley did well to capitalize on things in the short term by keeping him active—Buckley’s always been willing to keep up an active schedule—but a knockout loss to Alessio Di Chirico stopped his momentum and affirmed the issues in Buckley’s game. Buckley’s standout ability heading into his UFC debut was that he could throw power for three rounds without getting tired, but he’s always done so in fairly straightforward fashion. When “New Mansa” runs into an opponent that can survive his onslaught and get a feel for his rhythms, there’s a solid chance that Buckley will charge right into a knockout. That happened enough times that Buckley decided to cut down to 170 pounds last year, and while he’s much the same fighter, warts and all, his physicality as a welterweight has papered over those flaws. He still hits like a truck, his cardio hasn’t been affected and he’s not getting hit as hard in return, so Buckley should at the very least remain a fun gatekeeper for the welterweight elite for the next few years, even if he doesn’t improve from here. This fight against Thompson serves as Buckley’s big test to try and make it as a welterweight contender, but it also feels like just as much a referendum on where Thompson is at 41 years of age. A pure karate specialist, Thompson seemingly got exposed by Matt Brown shortly after his 2012 UFC debut, but that proved to be the low point for “Wonderboy.” The loss aged well, as Brown started his own ascent towards title contention, and Thompson learned enough takedown defense to typically keep his fights standing. From there, Thompson’s combination of size, speed and accuracy allowed him to outclass and embarrass a lot of mixed martial artists in a kickboxing match, sometimes with spectacular results. Things started to fall apart a bit when Thompson got into title contention. His two-fight title series with Tyron Woodley—a second fight was necessary because the first ended in a draw—highlighted a lot of the worst issues in Thompson’s approach, as both men’s commitment to counterstriking led to some unwatchable stretches due to inactivity. Given that result, the UFC didn’t particularly prioritize putting Thompson back in the title picture, but he’s hung around as a relevant fighter in the years since. With that said, he’s clearly aged out of title contention, with losses to Gilbert Burns, Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov showing that while Thompson’s still quite effective as a striker, he’s lost enough steps in terms of quick-twitch athleticism that he can now be effectively outwrestled. Even his most recent win, a decision victory over Kevin Holland to cap off 2022, was a messier affair than you’d prefer from someone that made his name with so much craft. Buckley’s dangerous-but-rudimentary approach is the type of game that Thompson would’ve carved up a few years ago, so a lot of this comes down to whether or not the former title contender still has sharp enough reflexes to fight a clean three rounds without getting caught. That’s a coinflip in and of itself, but adding in the chance that Buckley can wrestle his way to victory leads to the read that he can announce himself as a fresh welterweight contender here. The pick is Buckley via second-round knockout.
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Thompson vs. Buckley
Lucindo vs. Rodriguez
Almeida vs. Potieria
Hernandez vs. Hubbard
Penninngton vs. Esparza
Spann vs. St. Preux
Means vs. McGee
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