UFC News & FeaturesWomen’s Strawweights
#14 WSW | Iasmin Lucindo (16-5, 3-1 UFC) vs. #6 WSW | Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2, 7-4-2 UFC)ODDS: Lucindo (-175), Rodriguez (+145)
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This is a fascinating fight to sort things out at strawweight, pairing off two Brazilians whose success has been a bit hard to parse at times. Lucindo made her UFC debut in 2022, dropping an entertaining decision to fellow newcomer Yazmin Jauregui. Because Jauregui was considered to be the elite prospect at the time, it’s been fascinating to see her struggle while Lucindo has worked her way up the ranks. Lucindo started her fighting career at 15 years old, so she’s already well-tested at 22 years of age, and she’s an obvious physical talent, which has carried her through some inconsistent performances. At her best as a wrestler on the regional scene, Lucindo didn’t really get a chance to dominate with those skills in either of her 2023 wins. A clear victory over Brogan Walker saw her accomplish little in a striking match where Walker did even less, and a submission victory over Polyana Viana came after a lot of messiness that Lucindo wasn’t particularly getting the better of. Her most one-sided UFC win to date came in her last fight, a May victory over Karolina Kowalkiewicz that saw Lucindo land some hard shots early and use that to set up both successful striking and wrestling. It wasn’t the type of awe-inspiring performance that suggests Lucindo is immediately ready to join the strawweight elite, but it was a good showing against a tough veteran who has been hard to look good against in recent years. At any rate, Lucindo gets a big shot against Rodriguez, who’s settled in just outside of strawweight contender status. Rodriguez rose through the ranks after her 2018 UFC debut with a game that was more than the sum of its parts. Primarily a striker and not particularly athletic, Rodriguez showed enough takedown defense in spots to be able to keep pouring striking volume onto her opponents, even if it felt like she was scraping by at times. Rodriguez only lost one of her first nine UFC fights, which could’ve set her up for a title shot in 2022 had things broken differently, but instead, it seems like a lot of her issues have finally come back to bite her. Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade brought enough horsepower to stay ahead of Rodriguez—Lemos knocked her out—and Virna Jandiroba neutralized Rodriguez by going after an all-out wrestling attack. With that said, Rodriguez is still effective, as she ran over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in the midst of those losses and nearly got the decision win over Andrade; and her approach does make a lot more sense than what Lucindo is working with at the moment. While it’s entirely possible that Lucindo either makes the leap into a consistently effective fighter or lands one or two fight-changing moments of offense, the safer bet seems to be Rodriguez surviving and stringing together three solid rounds to take this on the scorecards. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.
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