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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Newark, New Jersey, and the undercard provides some reason for intrigue as several competitors look to get back in the win column. Middleweight Cesar Almeida gets the featured slot at the Prudential Center, which suggests the UFC views him as the next former kickboxer with the potential to make an impact at 185 pounds. To that end, his clash with Roman Kopylov serves as an excellent litmus test to see where Almeida can go from here. Further down the UFC 302 bill, Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki lock horns in a possible ground battle in the lightweight division, while welterweights Niko Price and Alex Morono rematch one another seven years after their first encounter. Near the bottom of the draw, an old-fashioned grudge match between Ailin Perez and Joselyne Edwards should settle some personal issues between the two at 135 pounds.
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Middleweights
Cesar Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Roman Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC)
ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)
The path from kickboxing to the UFC’s middleweight division has proven to be a fruitful one in recent years, and Almeida is the latest to try and make that successful transition. His Dana White’s Contender Series bout in August was his first mixed martial arts fight with any real meaning, and he impressed by that standard. He faced an opponent who, as expected, looked to wrestle, and while Almeida’s takedown defense wasn’t airtight, he proved surprisingly adept as a scrambler and grappler on the mat. After a brief injury layoff, Almeida’s UFC debut two months ago was fairly cut and dry. Dylan Budka outwrestled Almeida early, got tired and was then knocked out for his troubles. Almeida could probably use some more seasoning, but at 36 years old, it’s worth trying to rush him up the ladder; and if the UFC wants wrestling to be as little of a concern as possible for Almeida, Russia’s Kopylov is a solid bridge to see if the Brazilian is ready for ranked competition.
Order Now! UFC 302 “Makhachev vs. Poirier” Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Kopylov signed with the UFC in 2019 and was a tremendous disappointment for about three years. The hope was that Kopylov could continue his success as a high-volume striker, but he typically got overwhelmed during his rare trips to the Octagon in between injuries and visa issues. However, Kopylov hit his groove as soon as he appeared to be on the cut line, scoring a knockout of Alessio Di Chirico that marked the first of four straight victories. Kopylov tamped down the volume just a bit to focus on his punching power and the result has been a much more effective balance, and even his February loss to Anthony Hernandez was generally a positive sign. It was a poisonous style matchup on paper against a pressure-heavy grappler, and while it did end in a second-round submission for Hernandez, Kopylov forced him to work a lot harder than his previous work in the wrestling department would suggest. This is a hard fight to parse. While Kopylov is likely going to give Almeida the kickboxing match he desires, the Brazilian’s plodding and counter-heavy style might find trouble tracking down a quicker and longer fighter. Add in that Kopylov is willing to wrestle as a mix-up every so often, and the Russian gets the benefit of the doubt in terms of being able to coast this one out. The pick is Kopylov via decision.
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Almeida vs. Kopylov
Dawson vs. Solecki
Matthews vs. Rowe
Morono vs. Price
Hafez vs. Gall
Perez vs. Edwards
Lima vs. Raposo
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