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Preview: UFC Fight Night 121 ‘Werdum vs. Tybura’

Midcard Prelims


Flyweight

Ryan Benoit (9-5) vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian (13-2)

ODDS: Benoit (-275), Mokhtarian (+235)

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ANALYSIS: In his four-year UFC tenure, Benoit has gotten no easy ride with his matchmaking, and despite a 2-3 mark in the Octagon, he is a competent and dangerous striker, as best reflected in his March 2015 knockout upset of Sergio Pettis. In his last fight, he lost a competitive split decision to a top-10 flyweight in Brandon Moreno. In Australia’s Mokhtarian, he gets the softest touch of his UFC tenure. Benoit, a Saekson Janjira pupil, has a heavily westernized muay Thai game and excels as a powerful counterpuncher. If anything, he is often too reluctant and does not throw enough. Nonetheless, he can dominate multiple ranges of striking, both orthodox and southpaw, with punching combinations and heavy left kicks, as well as knees and elbows in close. Mokhtarian presents as a kickboxer, yet racked up his record on the Australian scene largely using his wrestling, which had zero currency against John Moraga in June, as “Chicano John” pulverized him on the floor. Benoit is not a great defensive wrestler, but he is fantastic at scrambling back to his feet, as he did in his wacky victory over Olympic wrestler Fredy Serrano last year. Even if “Baby Face” can be too passive at times, Mokhtarian has not displayed the same level of overall technique, and Benoit should be able to thwart his straightforward grappling attempts. Benoit has the power that makes a stoppage possible, but a clear unanimous decision is more likely.

Lightweight

Will Brooks (18-3) vs. Nik Lentz (27-8-2)

ODDS: Brooks (-570), Lentz (+435)

ANALYSIS: A sign of these UFC times, this fight was originally scheduled for UFC 216 on Oct. 7 before Lentz fell out before weigh-ins, with the promotion citing “medical issues.” Naturally, Brooks insinuated he was simply a coward. Here is an abridged version of what I wrote back then: We know precisely who Lentz is at this point in his career -- a high-level lightweight gatekeeper. Who is Brooks? Is he truly a top-10 lightweight beset by bad luck early in his UFC run or is he merely a good fighter who somehow stopped Michael Chandler twice? Brooks will enjoy four inches of reach on Lentz, which he can use to unload punching combinations or more likely his preferred, ranged kicking attack. Lentz’s poison has been those fighters. Brooks will kick from range and sprawl on Lentz’s shots, and if he is especially froggy, he can perhaps even take the back and look for a finish. Brooks on points is the call, but heaven help this man if he dives headlong into a guillotine. This dynamic will only be intensified, as Lentz will be making that same cut on which his body failed him six weeks later. That belief is reflected in Brooks swelling from a -360 to -570 favorite. So long as he avoids a surprise guillotine, Brooks should still take the previously forecasted decision.

Heavyweight

Anthony Hamilton (15-8) vs. Adam Wieczorek (8-1)

ODDS: Wieczorek (-160), Hamilton (+140)

ANALYSIS: Lo and behold, a second consecutive fight about which I have written in the last six weeks. It, too, was canceled and rescheduled at the last minute. While Nik Lentz had his medical issues, Wieczorek and Hamilton both weighed in four weeks ago to fight at UFC Fight Night 118 in Gdansk, Poland, only for the ceremonial weigh-ins to be crashed by rowdy soccer hooligans supporting local club Lechnia Gdansk, rival to Wieczorek’s Ruch Chorzow. Naturally, the UFC rescheduled the bout over security concerns because MMA is an ever-surprising circus. Again, here are the highlights of what I wrote a month ago, since they are still the same fighters and Hamilton’s predicament remains unsettling: Hamilton is playing a dangerous game here. He is 3-6 in the UFC and has lost three in a row, all via first-round stoppage. After he was upset in a mere 24 seconds by Daniel Spitz just [eight] weeks ago, he suggested he was going to retire. He is 37 years old. Hamilton is sympathetically slow in the cage, as if covered in wet cement at times, and worse, he is both hittable and “chinny” -- traits that appear to be intensifying with age and wear and tear, as evidenced in the Spitz fight. Wieczorek is exclusively a clinch wrestler; and his takedowns still lack, even from there. However, he is still a solid 6-foot-5 with an athletic heavyweight body and possesses a shockingly lithe, technical bottom game that helps him atone for his mediocre wrestling and take top position. He hits hard with long right hands on the feet and does even more damage as a ground-and-pounder. Wieczorek wins by first-round knockout. I suppose it is good at least that Hamilton had another four weeks to let his brain heal, but it changes none of the daunting, icky questions about his place here. Despite the extra time and one-shot power, he is an even bigger underdog now than he was four weeks ago. Wieczorek does not have to worry about those football freaks, should he knock “The Freight Train” off the tracks in the first round.

Lightweight

Frank Camacho (20-5) vs. Damien Brown (17-10)

ODDS: Camacho (-145), Brown (+125)

ANALYSIS:: Brown is a deceptive sort. Though he was taken to task quickly in the first round against Vinc Pichel in June, he overcame an early battering to take a split decision over Jon Tuck and showed surprising power in his hands with his knockout of Cesar Arzamendia last year. He is not a particularly great striker, yet manages to land clever, heavy punches despite being largely a stock-and-trade grappler with ho-hum wrestling. He is greater than the sum of his parts. Guam’s Camacho, 28, has fought professionally since he was 16 years old, and since his teenage years, he has been an aggressive wrestle-boxer to a fault. He has clean, powerful boxing, slamming takedowns, can shell opponents on the floor and even open up submissions that way. However, he also has a tendency to brawl unnecessarily and get knocked out as a result. He does not lack for toughness, though: In his UFC debut in June, he grabbed “Fight of the Night” honors for his unanimous decision loss to Jingliang Li -- a fight he took on a week’s notice -- and hurt the Chinese fighter early before gassing and absorbing a million leg kicks. Going back down to lightweight, his preferred weight class, and having a full camp, “Frank the Crank” should be able to impose his pressure brawling on Brown; and while the Aussie’s sneaky power could be a problem, Camacho should be able to box him up and pound him from a variety of positions for a mid-round stoppage or clear-cut decision.

Last Fights » Early Prelims
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