Preview: UFC Fight Night 121 ‘Werdum vs. Tybura’

Women's Strawweight

Alex Chambers (5-3) vs. Nadia Kassem (4-0)

ODDS: Kassem (-170), Chambers (+150)

ANALYSIS:: A vivid depiction of youth versus experience, the debuting Kassem turned 22 years old on Nov. 15, while Chambers turned 39 three weeks ago. Chambers has been a pro since May 2010, while Kassem turned pro barely two years ago and has never fought an opponent who had a single victory in MMA at the time. Chambers has not fought since blowing out her ACL in her loss to Paige VanZant at UFC 191 back in September 2015, two weeks after Kassem had her first pro MMA fight. This all-Australian encounter is one of extremes. Kassem’s opposition has been dreadful so far, but she has proven to be a heavy, swarming southpaw, segueing from heavy kicking combinations into barrages of left hands and clinch knees. Her four wins have lasted less than two and a half minutes combined; and it is not just for the lack of competition, as “187” is a well-earned nickname for such an aggressive, powerful striker. The relatively close betting line is largely predicated on the fact that there is really no footage of Kassem on the ground or having to defend a takedown, so it is still possible that Chambers, who has been training at American Top Team since recovering from knee surgery, could put her on the ground and exploit a potentially underdeveloped grappling game. Kassem was supposed to make her UFC debut in June against J.J. Aldrich, and this is an infinitely better opponent for her. Chambers is not a viable threat on the feet and is strictly average at setting up her takedowns, so it is most likely that Kassem hits her with southpaw shock-and-awe tactics out of the gate and either stops her fellow Aussie or punishes her badly enough to win a lopsided decision in her UFC debut.

Flyweight

Jenel Lausa (7-3) vs. Eric Shelton (10-4)

ODDS: Shelton (-370), Lausa (+310)

ANALYSIS:: The growing pains of Shelton, 0-2 in official UFC competition, mirror those of the promotion’s flyweight division. The fact that the 125-pound weight class is still so nascent means that talent must be mined and prospects often must fight prospects. This is intensified by the need for challengers to feed the increasingly dominant king of the division: Demetrious Johnson. Shelton upset No. 2-seeded Yoni Sherbatov on “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 24 but wound up losing to eventual winner and the vastly more experienced Tim Elliott. In his first of two formal Octagon appearances, the 26-year-old nearly won a split decision over “Ultimate Fighter” castmate Alexandre Pantoja, a top-20 fighter in the division. At UFC 214 in July, he should have won the split nod over Jarred Brooks. If Shelton had fought a couple of Jenel Lausas, he would be on a roll. Lausa, 29, is a speedy counterboxer with some serious hand skills. However, “The Demolition Man” hardly swings his wrecking ball enough and it leaves him on the defensive against powerful, varied attackers, as was shown in his one-sided decision loss to Magomed Bibulatov in April. Shelton is still very raw, but he is well-rounded, has clever if inconsistent boxing and sets up his takedowns well. His game is not as developed as Bibulatov’s, but the way the Chechen set up his takedowns and then cut through his guard suggests Shelton can do the same. “Showtime” gets his first win in the UFC, if not by taking Lausa’s back and choking him out then via positionally dominant decision.

Heavyweight

Rashad Coulter (8-2) vs. Tai Tuivasa (5-0)

ODDS: Tuivasa (-165), Coulter (+145)

ANALYSIS:: Coulter, a 35-year-old just coming into his own, is an athletically gifted, quality boxer who got savaged in his UFC debut against Chase Sherman in May, eating a mind-blowing 10.16 significant strikes per minute. Tuivasa is an undefeated 24-year-old brute, a former National Rugby League player who gave away that particular career over a gambling addiction and what he termed a “suck-ass culture.” Defense will not be on the menu here. Coulter can put his hands together nicely, but he is defensively porous. Tuivasa will not bombard and cripple him with leg kicks as Sherman did. More likely, his sneaky ambidextrous punches, especially his left hooks when southpaw, will provide the difference. Pure defense is not so much Tuivasa’s problem, either, and he has shown a monster chin at times, including in his mixed rules bouts, a la his knockout loss to Peter Graham in Combat 8 back in April 2013. His biggest problem, even as he has shed excess weight over his short career, has been horrific cardio, as he typically looks exhausted in three to five minutes, albeit while maintaining punching power. Still, he can take breaks with decent dirty boxing, and his chin and aggression will allow him to hit Coulter hard, early and often. Tuivasa by stoppage in the first seven minutes is the pick, and let us hope we do not go longer than that.