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Featherweights

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10, 3-1 UFC) vs. Steve Garcia (13-5, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Nuerdanbieke (-200), Garcia (+170)

Nuerdanbieke has carved out his place in UFC history, even if it is as more of a footnote than anything else. Nuerdanbieke happened to be Darrick Minner’s opponent on Nov. 5. The fight saw Minner lose quickly via apparent injury after some suspicious movement in betting lines—a result that has since caused plenty of ongoing issues regarding gambling in the UFC. At any rate, Nuerdanbieke is a solid but clearly flawed fighter. A powerful athlete, China’s “Wolverine” crammed nearly 50 fights into a five-year regional career. It is an impressive number, even if a solid amount were quick wins against overwhelmed competition. To that end, it is unsurprising that he still reads as a fighter who relies on his athleticism to see him through, mostly in the form of his wrestling. His 2021 UFC debut against Joshua Culibao was a rude awakening against an opponent who was able to outmaneuver Nuerdanbieke’s usual approach. Still, it has been impressive to watch Nuerdanbieke grind out subsequent wins over Sean Soriano and T.J. Brown before the Minner victory. He will likely need a similar approach against Garcia, who comes from the opposite spectrum as an underwhelming athlete who favors chaos over control. Garcia’s UFC debut was unmemorable, as he stepped in on short notice and mostly just got controlled on the ground by Luis Pena, but the last three fights for “Mean Machine” have all been wild affairs that ended in knockouts sooner rather than later. Garcia mostly moves forward and hopes for the best, which got him obliterated by Haiysaer Maheshate but earned him brutal wins over Charlie Ontiveros and Chase Hooper, the latter of which suggested 145 pounds could be his permanent weight class. There is a decent chance that Nuerdanbieke can just grind this one out, but the bet is that Garcia’s instant aggression can make him uncomfortable enough to lead to a finish before this gets out of the gates; and even if this goes into deeper waters, Nuerdanbieke leaves enough defensive openings in his grappling that Garcia might be able to scramble his way to some effective ground-and-pound. The pick is Garcia via first-round stoppage.

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