Preview: UFC 287 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Lupita Godinez (8-3, 3-3 UFC) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (9-5-1, 6-5-1 UFC)

ODDS: Godinez (-275), Calvillo (+230)

There is still the chance Calvillo could turn things around, but it better happen soon. Calvillo burst onto the scene in 2017, as she was signed just months into her pro career and was immediately featured on pay-per-view as a promotional favorite, showing her chops as a standout grappler while quickly rising through the strawweight ranks. That eventually stalled out with a decision loss to Carla Esparza, which figured to be a temporary bump in the road but instead portended a lot of the issues that would mark Calvillo’s career going forward. For all that grappling prowess, she often does not seem all that interested in getting to that part of her game. It is understandable that Calvillo would want to round out her skills, but her striking has never been particularly effective or well-connected to her wrestling, which eventually came home to roost with her move up to 125 pounds. Her flyweight debut against Jessica Eye went well enough, but everything since has been disheartening, especially since Calvillo now seems to unravel once things do not go particularly well on the feet. This fight marks her cut back down to 115 pounds—a move that usually comes across as a last gasp of sorts but could prove some dividends against Godinez, provided all goes well. Godinez’s UFC career thus far has been equal parts promising and frustrating thanks to some inconsistent results, even if “Loopy” has remained rather consistent herself. Born in Mexico and representing Canada, Godinez’s game has centered around her wrestling. She has looked like a championship-level fighter when everything is fully clicking, as it was in her win over Ariane Carnelossi in May, but proven surprisingly ineffective when an opponent can stall that part of her game out. That has been a surprisingly low bar to clear at times, most notably against Luana Carolina, who had little to offer defensively outside of a size advantage in Godinez’s one-off move up to flyweight. That also makes for a fascinating pairing here. As broken as Calvillo’s game has seemed at times, she is still a strong submission artist who should be buoyed by a strength advantage if her weight cut goes well. Calvillo could just gain an outright advantage and win this, but if it turns into more of a stalemate in terms of wrestling and grappling, the bad news is that Godinez is probably still the more effective striker. This does feel like a bit of a coinflip, but with Godinez having more supplementary skills and being more trustworthy in general, she gets the nod even if this could be a bit tricky. The pick is Godinez via decision.

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