Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Cerrone vs. Oliveira’

Lightweights

James Krause (22-7) vs Shane Campbell (12-3)

THE MATCHUP: Krause is primarily a pot-shotter who strikes from long range. There is a logical progression to his various attacks, with jabs setting up body shots, right hands setting up low kicks and takedowns and so on. Because he only executes one attack at a time, however, Krause has trouble exerting pressure on his opponent. He expects respect rather than demanding it. Krause’s pot-shotting also makes countering him a fairly safe venture.

Krause has a few knockouts to his name, but one look at his record will tell you that submissions are his most dangerous skill set. Krause has a tight rear-naked choke and an excellent guillotine, two submissions he finds in transitions mid-scramble. Krause’s problem is that he does not have the wrestling chops to force these weapons on the opponent. His submissions are typically the result of a slip, knockdown or a takedown executed by the opponent. As with his striking, Krause shows excellent intelligence by finding these submissions but does not have the pressuring element necessary to consistently create opportunities.

Like Krause, Campbell is a distance striker first and foremost. When given the space to strike, however, the experience of Campbell’s 71 pro kickboxing bouts shows. He throws far more volume than Krause, almost always striking in combination. Campbell’s best assets are his kicks, which he throws low, high and to the body. In addition to standard round kicks, Campbell will throw front kicks to maintain distance and likes to throw stepping knees to deter takedown attempts. Campbell’s hands are far from useless, though; his commitment to jabs and hand feints is what makes him such an effective kicker.

Where Krause almost welcomes the takedown, Campbell does everything in his power to stop it. Campbell does a good job of using the fence to his advantage whenever an opponent gets a hold of his leg, which can happen fairly often thanks to the frequency with which he kicks. Campbell can be taken down, but his game is well-tailored to modern MMA. He looks for underhooks and butterflies from his back and even scores tactical takedowns of his own when the opportunity arises.

THE ODDS: Krause (-142), Campbell (+122)

THE PICK: This fight is a risky one for both men. Krause is hittable and overconfident as a striker, and Campbell is poised to punish these faults. Campbell is inexperienced as a grappler, and Krause is more dangerous on the ground than anywhere else. In fact, Krause’s lightning-quick submissions are perhaps the biggest X-factor at play going into this fight. Krause’s lack of a nuanced wrestling game makes it unlikely that he will be able to keep the fight on the ground for any prolonged period of time, however -- and a kickboxing match favors Campbell any day. The complexion of the fight could change very suddenly should Campbell decide to wrestle with Krause, but that just is not enough to count on. The pick is Campbell by unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims