Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Cerrone vs. Oliveira’

Welterweights

Alex Garcia (13-2) vs Sean Strickland (16-1): Firas Zahabi has called Garcia one of the strongest, most athletic fighters with which he has ever worked -- high praise from the man who molded Georges St. Pierre. Unfortunately, Garcia is also somewhat mechanical with his striking and tends to tire himself out reaching for his opponent. Those traits could prove very troublesome against Strickland, who will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage and a three-inch height advantage over Garcia. Strickland is an out-fighter who likes to circle his opponent, pot-shotting away with stinging jabs and lead rights. He is a capable defensive fighter and counterpunches well. Strickland should be able to exploit Garcia’s tendency to swing wide and stumble off-balance just as Sean Spencer, Neil Magny and Mike Swick were able to in their meetings. Garcia’s most promising avenue to victory here is by using his wrestling, but the effectiveness of his takedown game usually diminishes as his stamina fades. Meanwhile, Strickland is a calm and poised fighter who has actually gone the five-round championship distance in the past. The pick is Strickland by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Daniel Sarafian (9-5) vs Oluwale Bamgbose (5-1): Bamgbose uses an awkward, stance-switching style reminiscent of that of Emanuel Newton, except that Bamgbose is certainly more powerful than the former Bellator MMA champ. He tends to pot-shot and counterpunch, building his kicks and punches off of erratic side-to-side movement. Sarafian is similar to Bamgbose in explosiveness, but he lacks the New Yorker’s fluidity. Sarafian likes to fight from distance, and he likes to grapple. Unfortunately, there is little connecting the two ranges. Sarafian tends to just leap through space, leading with flying knees and robotic combinations of shift punches. The problem with picking Bamgbose is that he has never gone past the first round, and we know very little about his grappling ability. Sarafian is hardly a submission master, however, and he is not exactly known for his stamina. I will take Bamgbose’s finishing ability and youth here. Bamgbose wins by second-round TKO.

Middleweights

Anthony Smith (23-11) vs Leonardo Guimaraes (11-1): Guimaraes does not have a lot of tools with which to control a fight. He does not move with balance and poise, nor does he jab and feint to create space. He has submission skills but does not wrestle well. He will back an opponent into the fence but does not do much to keep his own back off the fence. However, Guimaraes is durable and willing to slug it out with anyone. He throws until he gets tired and then keeps on throwing. Guimaraes’ style is ugly, but he is a brawler, in a very real, very dangerous sense that most fighters cannot comprehend. Smith holds the technical and strategic advantages in this matchup. He is the better wrestler and likely the better submission grappler. Lacking power and explosiveness, however, Smith often has to outlast his opponents to get a win, and Guimaraes is dangerous even when his stamina starts to fail him. Guimaraes takes this one with a first-round TKO.

Welterweights

Jonavin Webb (8-1) vs Nathan Coy (14-6): Webb is a talented prospect with a potentially problematic skill set. He is a submission wrestler with strong kicks, but he is neither technical nor comfortable boxing in the pocket, which leaves a troublesome gap between his two best ranges. Webb was bested in his UFC debut by the cagey Kyle Noke, a more experienced fighter who was able to out-kick him. He faces a similar challenge in Coy, though his specialty is his wrestling. Coy is a relentless wrestler who will dive on takedown after takedown until either his opponent falls down or he does. A seasoned veteran, he presents an interesting obstacle for the young prospect, but “Spyder” Webb has the advantage of youth on his side. He is faster and more tactically flexible than Coy, and that should be enough to get him the win. Webb takes it via unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Marion Reneau (6-2) vs Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-1): Like Holly Holm, the last woman to beat her, Reneau operates best against aggressive opponents. Give her a woman willing to walk forward and endanger herself, and Reneau slides smoothly side-to-side, lacing in straight punches and countering with occasional flurries. Give her an out-fighter like Holm, however, and she struggles to close the distance and put her strikes together. Fortunately for Reneau, Evans-Smith is aggressive. A wrestler, her modus operandi is to drive forward into the clinch, and Reneau should be able to deal some significant damage while she works her way there. Should Evans-Smith achieve the clinch, the complexion of the fight may change, but Reneau is a strong clinch fighter in addition to a dangerous jiu-jitsu black belt. Reneau wins this one by way of second-round submission.

Women’s Bantamweights

Lauren Murphy (8-2) vs Kelly Faszholz (3-0): Faszholz looks like a fighter with promise, and she should be a welcome addition to the UFC’s anemic women’s bantamweight division. Unfortunately for the California native, she is facing a former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder on about a week’s notice. Not only does Murphy have much more elite experience, but she is a relentlessly aggressive fighter, whether off of her back, in the clinch or at distance. Faszholz is probably the sharper, more accurate striker, but Murphy is happy to eat punches and pump away with both hands until she achieves the clinch. Murphy takes a gritty unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Anthony Hamilton (14-4) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov (15-3): Hamilton’s greatest asset is the presence of trainer Greg Jackson in his corner. The master strategist renders Hamilton’s jack-of-all-trades skill set more of a boon than it might be otherwise; Hamilton will wrestle when he needs to wrestle, strike when he needs to strike and stall when he needs to stall. Hamilton does have one noticeable strength in the form of his thudding, Mark Munoz-esque ground-and-pound. By way of contrast, Abdurakhimov is a specialized sprawl-and-brawler, though he is more technical a striker than that label might imply. Abdurakhimov likes to throw counter combinations, using uppercuts and hooks to dissuade takedown attempts. When the punches do not do the trick, he is a capable defensive wrestler and effective in the clinch, though his UFC debut against Timothy Johnson saw him struggle when put on his back. Hamilton is a threat from top position, but he is not as skilled a wrestler as Johnson. Abdurakhimov should be sharp enough to stop the “Freight Train” in his tracks. The pick is Abdurakhimov by second-round TKO.