Preview: UFC 218 ‘Holloway vs. Aldo 2’

Lightweight

Paul Felder (14-3) vs. Charles Oliveira (22-7)

ODDS: Felder (-110), Oliveira (-110)

ANALYSIS: For betting purposes, the lightweight clash between Felder and Oliveira is the closest thing we have to a pick-’em contest -- and with good reason. Not only is it a well-matched fight, but both fighters have proclivities in the cage that frighten even the smartest sharp bettors. After seven years in the Octagon, it is hard to believe Oliveira has not achieved more. He just turned 28 years old and remains one of the most dazzling grapplers in MMA history; with one more submission win, he will tie Royce Gracie for the all-time lead in UFC career submissions with 10. Yet beyond the fact that he has missed weight repeatedly, he is 10-7 in the Octagon and has been finished in six of those losses. When Oliveira shines, he shines bright, but when he implodes, everything goes to hell in a hand basket. For instance, witness him nearly choke out Ricardo Lamas 13 months ago and then desperately dive headfirst into a fight-ending guillotine. Many of Felder’s missteps, most notably his split decision loss to Ross Pearson two years ago, have come as a result of curious tactics. Felder will eat jabs and leg kicks while loading up on exotic spinning attacks, go for takedowns at weirdly inopportune times and often seems to be executing a strategy dedicated to undermining himself. Like any Oliveira bout, it will only take one careless move from Felder for “The Irish Dragon” to give up his back or neck. Felder will need to be cautious to not have his kicks caught and to avoid those aforementioned silly takedowns, either of which could give “Charles do Bronx” all the opportunity he needs for latch onto something. However, even as Oliveira has become a serviceable striker himself, Felder still has far more striking tools, and if he works in combination rather than looking for flashy karate techniques in isolation, he can force the Brazilian to his back foot, beat him up and even stop him. Both men have a penchant for tripping themselves, but given how quickly Oliveira can start to sputter when he gets the heat put on him, as well as the fact that he is taking the bout on five weeks’ notice for Al Iaquinta, Felder seems just slightly better poised to exploit his Achilles’ heel. Felder wins by wild and woolly TKO stoppage in the mid-to-late phrase of the fight.

Welterweight

Yancy Medeiros (14-4) vs. Alex Oliveira (17-4-1)

ODDS: Oliveira (-200), Medeiros (+170)

ANALYSIS: Stepping up to 170 pounds has paid dividends for Hawaii’s Medeiros, as he has authored back-to-back second-round stoppages against Sean Spencer and Erick Silva. However, the welterweight division has also proven to be a better home for “Cowboy” Oliveira, who is 5-1 with one no-contest at 170 pounds inside the UFC, his lone loss coming to Donald Cerrone. Medeiros’ knockout of the once-touted Silva in June was a reminder of the best and worst of his game, as he was pressured and rocked by the larger man’s striking attack before finding his chin and nuking him with a devastating combo. Medeiros can box but gets sucked into brawls at times and is a capable grappler but can fall prey to a slicker man on the floor. Both of these are dangerous against Oliveira, who is still a physically impressive specimen with dangerous offensive skills. Medeiros, who absorbs 4.81 significant strikes per minute, will be wading into close quarters with his punches, and Oliveira is liable to clobber him or deposit him on the mat, where he can work to dominant position in the blink of an eye or simply wear down a foe with ground-and-pound. The Hawaiian will need to work constant in-out movement and thwart the bigger man’s wrestling attack for 15 minutes or until he nets a stoppage. It is not an impossible task, just one that does not jive will with Medeiros’ defensive shortcomings against such a potent fight finisher. “Cowboy” takes out Medeiros in the first 10 minutes.

Lightweight

Drakkar Klose (7-0-1) vs. David Teymur (6-1)

ODDS: Teymur (-175), Klose (+155)

ANALYSIS: There are no two ways about this one: Klose-Teymur is an awesome albeit low-key pairing of lightweight prospects who should go on to become solid UFC fixtures; in the interim, they should provide a thrilling clash of styles. Both up-and-comers sprang to the MMA world’s attention with their most recent bouts. Klose in July was figured to be a good stepping stone for another undefeated prospect in Marc Diakiese before handing the former British Association of Mixed Martial Arts champion the first defeat of his pro career. Four months earlier, Teymur earned one of the year’s niftiest upsets at UFC 209, outlasting all-action Lando Vannata in an intense brawl. While both seek to implement very different offensive games, Klose and Teymur fight at an incredibly high pace. Klose fired off 299 total strikes in wins over Diakiese and Devin Powell, while Teymur has thrown 323 total strikes in under 28 minutes of UFC cage time and lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute. Klose marches forward behind hard, isolated strikes, segueing to the clinch, where he roughs up his foes and looks for a constant rinsing and repeating of takedowns and ground-and-pound. Teymur, a rangy southpaw, circles his opponents with jabs and kicks until finding an opening, then blitzes them with eight-pointed striking. Teymur’s style and three inches of reach should be formative here, as he will be the matador to Klose’s bull, a role he played deftly against Vannata earlier this year. The Swede still eats more punches than he should, but between the Vannata bout and his loss to Marcin Wrzosek on “The Ultimate Fighter 22,” the Allstars Training Center exponent has shown he has a serious chin and ability to recover quickly. Klose is no shrinking violet, but his constant rushes from outside striking range have left him vulnerable at times, most notably in the only near-loss of his career, as Joshua Aveles nearly knocked him out in the second round of their Tachi Palace Fights contest. Furthermore, Teymur has shown much improved wrestling, both defensively and offensively, as he used well-timed shots to disrupt Vannata’s third-round attack without wasting much of his own energy. Teymur also does brilliant work in the clinch, where Klose thrives, with heavy volleys of knees to the body. Teymur will have to eat some leather -- plus foot stomps, short elbows and other clinch artillery -- from Klose, but his length, dauntless punching combinations and striking savvy will earn him a decision win and possibly a “Performance of the Night” bonus, spoiling Klose’s homecoming.

Women’s Strawweight

Felice Herrig (13-6) vs. Cortney Casey-Sanchez (7-4)

ODDS: Herrig (-150), Casey-Sanchez (+130)

ANALYSIS: A pro for nearly nine years now, Herrig has just started to hit her competitive stride, posting a 4-1 mark in the UFC while ripping off three consecutive wins since her lopsided loss to Paige VanZant in April 2015. Even with her underdog winning streak, “Lil Bulldog” will be dealing with a different animal here. Casey-Sanchez’s UFC tenure began with ho-hum losses to Joanne Calderwood and Seo Hee Ham, but she has gone 3-1 over her last four appearances, with that lone loss coming to divisional standout Claudia Gadelha. A physically imposing strawweight, “Cast Iron’s” game has started to compliment her physicality, allowing her to land clubbing strikes while standing and press her aggressive grappling game on the floor. Her win over long-time divisional ace Jessica Aguilar in May -- which was mired in controversy due to the negligence and idiocy of the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, which still owes Casey-Sanchez a massive apology -- was a good indicator of where the MMA Lab product’s game is at. She is not defensively airtight and she may be susceptible to kicks or well-timed takedowns, but she will never stop scrapping or trying to create offense however possible, whether it means hustling for a submission, scrambling to her feet or lobbing heavy combinations while standing. Casey-Sanchez’s improvements have been witnessed in beating much stiffer opposition than Herrig and against opponents that are more threatening to her style. Herrig was brilliant in using body-head attacks to confuse Alexa Grasso and set up her long overhand rights in a breakout win. She kept Justine Kish off-balance by forcing the wrestling game whenever Kish used her kickboxing attack. However, Grasso shut down once she got frustrated and tagged repeatedly, and Kish seemed completely out of her depth on the floor. Herrig always seems to settle into the groove of a fight; if she gets confidence early, as in the Grasso and Kish bouts, she becomes more assertive and takes over, whereas if things go downhill quick, a la the VanZant defeat, she seems content to run out the clock. The Jeff Curran understudy is well-rounded but struggles when she is not the aggressor, and that is a distinction Casey-Sanchez will likely establish from the outside. Casey-Sanchez also excels at using combinations to close the distance and then punishing her foes from the clinch, which has been a tactic that has stymied Herrig in the past. “Cast Iron” starts with the burner on high heat and does not turn it down, ending Herrig’s winning streak via decision.

Last Fights » The Early Prelims