Preview: UFC 218 ‘Holloway vs. Aldo 2’

Welterweight

Abdul Razak Alhassan (7-1) vs. Sabah Homasi (11-6)

ODDS: Alhassan (-240), Homasi (+200)

ANALYSIS: Both Alhassan and Homasi are trying to rebound from less-than-sterling performances, albeit in different ways. At UFC 202 in August 2016, Homasi stepped up on short notice and got mauled by the more experienced Tim Means; meanwhile, Alhassan last fought in May, when he punched Omari Akhmedov in the face over and over again, yet wound up on the ground repeatedly and lost a split decision. Prior to the Akhmedov fight, Alhassan had never fought longer than 90 seconds as a pro, and the native Ghanaian still only has four years of MMA experience to his credit, having started fighting shortly after beginning his training. Alhassan is still a wild, free swinger on the feet and needs to polish up his boxing technique, but he has massive power. Despite being a far classier, technical kickboxer, Homasi remains quite hittable, albeit not as hittable as a statistic like 8.95 significant strikes absorbed per minute would indicate, courtesy of that Means fight. Unlike the Akhmedov bout, which was a massive leap up in opposition, Alhassan should have the ability to use his judo prowess here if he struggles to land leather on American Top Team’s Homasi. Alhassan by stoppage in the first half of the contest is the pick.

Light Heavyweight

Jeremy Kimball (15-8) vs. Dominick Reyes (7-0)

ODDS: Reyes (-400), Kimball (+325)

ANALYSIS: There is a certain charm to Kimball, a slightly overweight journeyman who looks like a furry juggalo yet possesses a deceptive amount of skill. A military brat who learned Japanese jiu-jitsu from his dad and requisite MMA skills from Thomas Denny making it to the UFC in 2017 is unexpected and quaint. The 26-year-old Kimball has clear limits, as shown in his short-notice UFC debut in January, when Marcos Rogerio de Lima cracked him in half a round once he applied heavy striking pressure and power. However, the “Grizzly” can swing himself, as evidenced by him plunking Josh Stansbury in 81 seconds in June. The problem here is that the undefeated Reyes, 27, is a better fighter than de Lima or Stansbury. Reyes, a former National Football League hopeful, will have four inches of height and five inches of reach on Kimball, a blown-up middleweight. Worse for Kimball, Reyes’ reach and length compliment his skills. “The Devastator” is a heavy-pressure southpaw kickboxer whose left head kick is at least an eight out of 10 on the “Cro Cop” scale -- 10 being “cemetery,” of course. Under the tutelage of trainers Joe Stevenson and striking coach Craig Buchanan, Reyes’ left cross has become accurate and deadly, as well. Kimball lacks for defense but has sneaky speed and power with his hands and has a knack for knowing when to go for takedowns. None of that will matter against a far superior athlete with much more dangerous weapons. It will not be as quick as his 29-second UFC debut over Joachim Christensen, but Reyes knocks out Kimball as soon as he finds a regular home for his left shin and hand in the first round or early second.

Heavyweight

Allen Crowder (9-2) vs. Justin Willis (5-1)

ODDS: Willis (-210), Crowder (+175)

ANALYSIS: Making fun of heavyweights never goes out of style, so we have been blessed with “Big Pretty” taking on “The Pretty Boy” in an otherwise unspectacular pairing of large, powerful dudes. Both men are converted football players. Crowder has more pro fights than Willis but has been a pro for just about four years -- and it shows. Despite his athletic frame, he often seems labored, as if he is thinking through all of his attacks. Willis was successful in his UFC debut against James Mulheron in July, but his 15-minute decision was a reminder that the American Kickboxing Academy product is not an offensive dynamo. Willis may not be a high-output fighter, and just on the eyeball test, he seems like he is in markedly worse shape than Crowder. However, he has two inches of reach on his foe, is a much slicker southpaw and is likely a better technical wrestler. Willis took down Mulheron in all three rounds, and while his striking pace dropped off over the contest, he never stopped landing cleaner, harder counters. Crowder is liable to charge into left-handed shots early on, allowing “Big Pretty” to ugly him up and likely set up his timing-based takedowns. Willis on points is the pick.

Women’s Strawweight

Amanda Bobby Cooper (2-3) vs Angela Magana (11-8)

ODDS: Cooper (-525), Magana (+415)

ANALYSIS: Magana is the biggest underdog on the UFC 218 card and the reasons inevitably extend beyond her actual in-cage ability. Magana is officially 0-2 in the UFC and has not won a fight since beating Avery Vilche over six years ago. She has not fought in more than two years, during which time her notable achievements have been winding up in the hospital for not tapping to a twister in training and getting socked by Cristiane Justino at the UFC Athlete Retreat in response to her boorish tweets. She nicknamed herself “Your Majesty.” By and large, she is insufferable. The style matchup does not help her here. Cooper is not an elite strawweight and has many defensive holes, but she excels when she can use active kickboxing to dictate the distance on the feet and then dive into clinches with volleys of knees and threaten the takedown. “ABC” really does her best work on top, where she is an above-average guard passer with potent ground-and-pound. This is true of Magana, as well, but her defensive wrestling is even more porous and she opens herself up to much more punishment on the ground, which Cooper should dole out liberally. Cooper by mid-round stoppage or handy decision is the pick.