UFC 165 ‘Jones vs. Gustafsson’ Preview

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Lightweights

Pat Healy (29-16, 0-1 UFC) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (20-0, 4-0 UFC)

The Matchup: Since he recently began making the journey to the vaunted American Kickboxing Academy for his fight camps, the promising Nurmagomedov has been mentioned by coach Javier Mendez as a future title contender. That is hardly faint praise considering that talents such as Josh Thomson and Gray Maynard call the California-based gym home.

The 24-year-old Russian inspires high hopes for a reason. Unbeaten as a professional, Nurmagomedov has bested Kamal Shalorus, Gleison Tibau, Thiago Tavares and Abel Trujillo inside the Octagon, dominating all but Tibau during his UFC tenure. A world champion in sambo, “The Eagle” could be a couple key wins away from serious title contention.

Healy has done his best shed the journeyman label in recent years, fashioning a six-fight winning streak inside the Strikeforce hexagon that had him on the brink of challenging Gilbert Melendez before the promotion closed its doors. The Sports Lab product’s momentum carried over into his UFC return, where he submitted tough veteran Jim Miller with a rear-naked choke in April. However, the elation of victory -- and the substantial bonus money accompanying it -- disappeared when Healy tested positive for marijuana metabolites and the win was overturned. With that in mind, “Bam Bam” should still have plenty of incentive to earn his first official triumph with the Las Vegas-based promotion.

While Nurmagomedov is accustomed to achieving dominant positions in grappling exchanges, do not expect anything resembling his most recent bout, where the Russian ragdolled Trujillo repeatedly from the rear waistlock position and had the Blackzilians representative throwing his arms up in frustration as the contest drew to a close. What Healy lacks in overall athleticism, he makes up for with sheer resilience and grit. A large lightweight who excels at wearing down his foes with persistent clinch work and wrestling, Healy will have his greatest success if he is able to control tempo by grinding Nurmagomedov against the fence. There, Healy can land uppercuts and standing elbows while attempting takedowns in hopes of making his adversary wilt under consistent pressure.

With that said, Healy is much less comfortable when he is unable bring the fight to close quarters. Many of his opponents have had success tagging him in exchanges early, though few have been able to maintain that success over the course of a fight. Nurmagomedov is an able counterpuncher and, as evidenced by his dynamic flying uppercut knockout of Tavares, certainly has the ability to rock Healy as he presses forward.

There is no guarantee that Healy will be able to get Nurmagomedov down, and even if he does, the young lightweight can chain together multiple submission attempts to limit topside offense. Additionally, Nurmagomedov will likely be the quicker fighter in scrambles and transitions, meaning that he could score points simply by securing more dominant positions.

The Pick: Healy’s best chance is to wear down his foe, but Nurmagodemov is too dynamic in too many areas. The Russian wins a hard-fought decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims