UFC 165 ‘Jones vs. Gustafsson’ Preview

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Lightweights

Myles Jury (12-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. Mike Ricci (8-3, 1-1 UFC): After struggling to combat the pressure and wrestling of Colton Smith in the welterweight final of Season 16 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Ricci was able to impose his will at 155 pounds in a victory over Colin Fletcher at UFC 158. He will find the going more difficult in his second lightweight outing against Jury, who has looked impressive in dispatching Chris Saunders, Michael Johnson and Ramsey Nijem in the Octagon. Jury wins by late TKO or decision.

Bantamweights

Ivan Menjivar (25-10, 4-3 UFC) vs. Wilson Reis (16-4, 0-0 UFC): Reis, a six-time Bellator MMA veteran, steps in as a replacement for the injured Norifumi Yamamoto. Reis has had his share battles over the course of a career that began in 2007, earning notable wins over the likes of Bryan Caraway, Zach Makovsky and Henry Martinez, to name a few, but he will struggle against the power and versatile striking of Menjivar. Perhaps Reis can capitalize on Menjivar’s aggression by changing levels for a takedown and working from there, but the “Pride of El Salvador” will likely be too relentless, eventually overwhelming his foe for a second-round TKO victory.

Welterweights

Stephen Thompson (7-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Chris Clements (11-4, 1-0 UFC): Clements was submitted by Matt Riddle in his most recent bout at UFC 149, but that contest was overturned after Riddle failed a post-fight drug test. While Clements was taken down repeatedly by Riddle, the tae kwon do black belt gets a like-minded foe this time in Thompson, a five-time world champion kickboxer. While both men are capable of landing flashy strikes, Thompson also utilized some solid clinch work to best Nah-Shon Burrell at UFC 160. It is that progression that gives him the edge here. “Wonderboy” wins by decision.

Bantamweights

Mitch Gagnon (9-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. Dustin Kimura (10-0, 1-0 UFC): Gagnon has earned all nine of his career triumphs by way of submission, but the Team Shredder representative also possesses decent power in his hands; he just needs to make sure not to wear himself out throwing power strikes. His standup could be the difference against Kimura, who absorbed some shots on the feet in his UFC debut against Chico Camus before submitting the Roufusport product in round three. Gagnon will be better equipped than Camus to handle Kimura’s ground game, and he can hurt the Hawaiian standing. Gagnon wins by decision or submission.

Lightweights

John Makdessi (11-2, 4-2 UFC) vs. Renee Forte (8-2, 1-1 UFC): Forte relied on a bullying style to capture his first UFC victory -- a unanimous verdict over Terry Etim in February. A similar approach would serve him well against Makdessi, a precise striker capable of landing with both volume and accuracy. However, Makdessi has solid takedown defense, and he will be able to confuse his opponent by utilizing a variety of techniques behind his pinpoint jab to win via decision.

Lightweights

Michel Richard dos Prazeres (16-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jesse Ronson (13-2, 0-0 UFC): Prazeres suffered his first career loss at UFC on FX 8, falling to veteran Paulo Thiago via unanimous decision in a 170-pound tilt. The Brazilian did some good things in defeat, particularly in attacking his opponent at all levels with his kicks. Next he faces, Ronson, an Ontario native filling in for the injured Mark Bocek. As a large lightweight, Prazeres overpowers Ronson with top-control grappling to win via submission.

Bantamweights

Alex Caceres (8-5, 3-3 UFC) vs. Roland Delorme (9-1, 3-0 UFC): Resilience and an active ground game have carried Delorme to three wins in four UFC appearances, with his only bump in the road coming courtesy of Francisco Rivera’s heavy hands -- a defeat that was later declared a no-contest. While “The Ultimate Fighter 14” alum has proven vulnerable on the feet, Caceres lacks the knockout power to seriously threaten him. Assuming Delorme can avoid the dangers of the “Bruce Leeroy” guard, look for him to have little trouble getting his opponent to the canvas. Some fun grappling exchanges should ensue, with Delorme getting the best of them to win via submission or decision.

Heavyweights

Nandor Guelmino (11-4-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (15-3-1, 0-0 UFC): Guelmino was thrown to the wolves, or more accurately “The Warmaster,” in his big-show debut, as he offered little resistance in falling to Josh Barnett via arm-triangle choke in the first round at Strikeforce “Marquardt vs. Saffiedine.” The 37-year-old is more appropriately matched here against Omielanczuk, a native of Warsaw, Poland, who currently owns an 11-fight winning streak. Guelmino lands the heavier shots to win via TKO in round one or two.

TRACKING TRISTEN 2013

Overall Record: 173-107
Last Event (World Series of Fighting 5): 6-3
Best Event (Strikeforce “Marquardt vs. Saffiedine): 9-2
Worst Event (UFC 156/UFC on Fuel TV 8/UFC Fight Night 28): 5-6