Preview: UFC Fight Night 246 Prelims

Heavyweights

#15 HW | Rodrigo Nascimento (11-2, 4-2 UFC) vs. #13 HW | Alexander Romanov (17-3, 6-3 UFC)

ODDS: Nascimento (-112), Romanov (-108)

The UFC’s heavyweight division needs some sorting out past a certain point, and this fight figures to do just that. It was a bit of a stretch when Nascimento was tasked with headlining a card against Derrick Lewis earlier this year, but “Ze Colmeia” had at least earned the spot with a few years of solid but unspectacular work. Nascimento’s calling card during his rise through the ranks was a surprisingly solid grappling game, even though getting there was often an adventure. Nascimento’s wrestling was spotty even against lower-level competition, and in recent years, he has often eschewed that approach to focus on developing a decent—if not particularly powerful—striking game. None of that really prepared him for Lewis, however. Nascimento did at least do the smart thing and fight with a wrestling-focused approach, but he eventually tired himself out and got knocked out in the third round. Now comes the attempted bounce-back against Romanov, though it’s hard to know what to expect from either man.

Romanov was a fascinating prospect when he hit the UFC in 2020. It was easy to write him off given that his regional record consisted of him physically overwhelming middling competition on the Moldovan scene, but he showed some potential as a massive human with the ability to wrestle and a solid gas tank, along with possessing some sneaky athleticism. Romanov won his first five UFC bouts with few moments of difficulty—even if his gas tank did appear to flag against opponents who were able to keep pace with his wrestling—before a 2022 loss to Marcin Tybura that seems to have absolutely broken him. Both men were already fighting an uphill battle as heavyweights competing at the elevation of Salt Lake City, and even after a dominant first round, Romanov reached a level of exhaustion that few have achieved inside the UFC, dropping the rest of the fight and losing the decision. Romanov showed up in notably poor form, both in terms of appearance and performance, against Alexander Volkov a few months later, and he has generally folded once opponents have been able to outwrestle or outgrapple him in his fights since. A win over Blagoy Ivanov in July 2023 remains something of a hope for optimism, as Romanov was somehow able to put together three solid rounds without careening off the rails. This really could go either way, as Nascimento could make Romanov immediately fold with some wrestling-heavy pressure, but has also shown some subpar takedown defense of his own when pressed. That could allow Romanov to take some early momentum if Nascimento takes a more patient approach. Nascimento did finally lean on his wrestling against Lewis, though there’s the worry that was more of a specific adjustment given his clear knockout threat. In general, most of Nascimento’s recent performances have been the type that could give Romanov an avenue into winning this fight. It feels like a bit of a flier, but the lean is that the Moldovan can find some early success without crumpling down the stretch, even though this could be ugly. The pick is Romanov via decision.

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