Preview: UFC Fight Night 132 ‘Cerrone vs. Edwards’

Bantamweights
Teruto Ishihara (10-5-2) vs. Petr Yan (8-1)
Odds: Yan (-475), Ishihara (+380)

Ishihara is up against it against highly-touted newcomer Yan. The Russian is a Master of Sport in boxing but has also demonstrated a knack for grappling and wrestling that belies his lack of experience in a grappling art. The 25 year-old Tiger Muay Thai standout is the reigning Absolute Championship Berkut bantamweight champion. His willingness to fight off his back or engage in grappling exchanges with more experienced opponents have been his issues thus far. But “No Mercy” has hit several gorgeous throws of his own, and his technical, high-volume and defensively responsible boxing make him an exciting prospect. Ishihara remains a heavy-handed, counter-oriented southpaw kickboxer. His training at Team Alpha Male has added some wrestling skill to his repertoire, but he remains fairly low-output with abysmal takedown defense. Fortunately, he has upped his volume recently while also being smarter about his gas tank, which used to quickly drain from the strain of his “all power, all the time” approach. Still, Yan has too many weapons at his disposal and the willingness to constantly attack. Yan makes a successful debut beating up Ishihara near the fence and on the ground.

Bantamweights
Felipe Arantes (18-9-1, 2 N/C) vs. Yadong Song (10-3, 2 N/C)
Odds: Arantes (-120), Yadong (+100)

Arantes is an offense-first fighter who has struggled with top-control specialists in recent bouts. The Brazilian is a black belt in muay Thai and a brown belt in BJJ, and he attacks relentlessly using those skill sets. The Macaco Gold Team product is a dynamic kicker who also punches in combination, but he is hittable and doesn’t respond well to heavy pressure. On the mat, Arantes will throw up submission attempts at every opportunity, but he is usually stuck playing from his back because of his wrestling deficiency. China’s Yadong is only 20, but he picked up a spectacular victory in his debut. He dropped Bharat Khandare with a flush overhand before choking out the desperately shooting wrestler with a ten-finger guillotine a moment later. The Chinese standout isn’t much of a wrestler outside of being able to hit occasional reactive shots, but he is an athletic and scramble-happy grappler. He will not want to tangle with the more experienced Arantes in that area. Yadong will want to use his athleticism to stay at range, avoid tie-ups, and launch his right hand. Arantes is inconsistent, but he is a cut above the green newcomer Yadong trounced seven months ago, so this will be a test for the prospect. The Brazilian tends to succeed against more stationary opponents, which Yadong will not be. The 20-year-old explodes in and out with his right hand, tagging the defensively suspect Brazilian to take a decision victory.

Featherweights
Rolando Dy (9-6-1, 1 N/C) vs. Shane Young (11-4)
Odds: Young (-165), Dy (+145)

Both Dy and Young are looking to even their UFC records, and I think Young has the upper hand in accomplishing that goal. The New Zealander is a smooth operator on the feet, keeping up a steady stream of medium-power punches and kicks. He doesn’t typically throw long combinations, but he rarely goes longer than a few seconds without firing a kick or a pair of punches. He’ll attack the legs and body using either his lead left or rear power legs. The City Kickboxing standout is also a capable wrestler. Alexander Volkanovski controlled Young -- who was making his debut on short notice -- against the cage for long stretches of their fight, but struggled to take or hold him down. That won’t be an issue against Dy, a Filipino muay Thai specialist with a propensity for blistering body kicks. The Biagtan Muay Thai rep stands upright with a wide guard, looking to bait opponents in to counter with a mean left hook. That tendency to counter has led to inactivity and low volume at times. His footwork and output are improving, but Dy still struggles when trying to pressure, telegraphing big single shots that are relatively easy to avoid. Young doesn’t move his head all that much, but he maintains distance well and will eat one to land three or four of his own. The New Zealander outlands Dy for the duration to take a clear-cut decision victory.

Welterweights
Kenan Song (12-3) vs. Hector Aldana (4-0)
Odds: Kenan (-280), Aldana (+240)

Aldana last saw action three years ago on the set of “TUF Latin America 2,” defeating UFC vet Alvaro Herrera before falling to Enrique Marin. The Entram Gym export was a hard-punching prospect with very suspect takedown defense back then. What he is now is anyone’s guess. I did not think Song was a UFC-caliber fighter before he starched Bobby Nash in the first round of their November tilt. Oops. What concerned me was that I saw a kick-heavy striker who did not move his head and attacked very little. When Nash flashed a jab and came behind it with a left hook, leaving his left side exposed, Song stood his ground and melted the American with a right hand. The Jackson-Wink transplant has also displayed awful takedown defense of his own. Ostensibly, it should improve by training at one of the premier camps in America. Either way, Aldana doesn’t figure to test it. I’ll double down on my original take, which was that Kenan isn’t a great fighter. The layoff is a legitimate, major concern for Aldana, who could show significant rust, or show that he has rounded out his skills significantly in his time off. Unless the Mexican fighter walks face-first into a big counter, he outpoints the tentative karate fighter to a decision victory.

Welterweights
Shinsho Anzai (10-2) vs. Jake Matthews (12-3)
Odds: Matthews (-525), Anzai (+415)

Matthews is a massive favorite, which is a little puzzling given his inconsistent track record. But when examining all the advantages Matthews should have in this bout, the line starts to make more sense. “The Celtic Kid” is still only 23 years old, and this will be his tenth fight with the organization. The BJJ black belt has left lightweight far behind, filling out to a strapping frame at 170 pounds. He is a powerful athlete with legit pop on his punches, but his striking is still the least technical part of his game. He can rush in behind cracking leg kicks and fast punches, but he rarely throws more than two punches at a time, is still developing his defense and can get backed to the cage too easily. The Aussie chases takedowns often, succeeding on nearly 2.5 per fight. He can still be caught in compromising positions at times, but his defense and scrambling ability have improved significantly since he shot into a James Vick guillotine. Anzai comes from a wrestling background but he is hardly more than pedestrian in that area. When he does get top position, the Team Climb export rarely succeeds in doing anything with the position, desperately clinging to his opponent to stay on top. Where Anzai has had more success is with his willing and powerful hands. The Japanese fighter throws hard hooks off failed takedowns or lunges forward with a tight left hook. He was overly aggressive at times prior to coming to the big show but has chilled a bit after getting knocked out by Alberto Mina. Still, it is difficult to see a path forward for Anzai, who will not have his wrestling to fall back on and will be dueling a much quicker, more explosive athlete in Matthews. Anzai’s relatively straightforward striking will not be enough to seriously threaten or flummox Matthews, who punches him up standing and on the mat to take a one-sided decision.

Strawweights
Xiaonan Yan (8-1, 1 N/C) vs. Viviane Pereira (13-1)
Odds: Pereira (-165), Xiaonan (+145)

Chinese prospect Xiaonan is coming off an impressive debut in which she boxed up Kailin Curran for the majority of their 15-minute affair, even dropping her with a pair of right hands in Round 1. “Fury” is aggressive, throws in combination, and turns her hips into her punches like few in the strawweight division. The China Top Team fighter has also spent time at Jackson-Wink, looking to round out the rest of her game. Her takedown defense has been generally solid, but she has gone for those head-and-arm throws that so often get strawweights’ backs taken at the highest level. She takes on Brazilian sanda champion Pereira in a matchup of two strikers. Pereira is looking to rebound after getting dominated on the mat by wrestling wunderkind Tatiana Suarez in her last bout, doing well to survive but little else. The short and muscular Dragon Kombat standout is still only 24. She likes to potshot with quick 1-2s or grind with knees against the fence. The latter seems like the best path to victory for Pereira. Xiaonan will happily engage in a kickboxing battle, and her greater aggression and output will likely see her to victory unless Pereira can counter her hard and consistently. But Xiaonan has displayed a weakness before in getting stuck on the cage, stalled out, and kneed. Still, I like the first Chinese woman signed to the UFC to pick up her second win in two tries, outpointing Pereira with punching combinations for the duration.

Flyweights
Matt Schnell (10-4) vs. Naoki Inoue (11-0)
Odds: Inoue (-190), Schnell (+165)

Undefeated 21-year-old Inoue has a black belt in karate, but he looks extremely comfortable on the mat as well, with seven of his 11 wins coming via tapout. Long and lanky -- not quite as much as countryman Ulka Sasaki, who we’ll get to in a moment -- Inoue makes excellent use of that frame in tying up limbs and attacking the neck. He hasn’t developed his offensive wrestling much yet, but his scrambling ability is such that he usually ends up in an advantageous, or at least offensive, position. On the feet, the Hakushinkai Karate standout bounces in and out of range, delivering crisp 1-2s in the interim, which he pairs with quick, snappy leg kicks. Schnell has had a bit of a rough go in the UFC, falling by knockout in his first two UFC appearances after going 1-1 on “TUF 24.” The 28-year-old has been a professional for nearly six years, so he should be entering his prime. Perhaps a turnaround is in order. The BJJ purple belt is an aggressive submission hunter, particularly from his back. That’s often where he finds himself because his offensive wrestling is not great. Schnell, also a black belt in karate, favors standing on the edge of range before stepping in with hard, straight punches. He typically throws in combination but can wait around too long for the openings he likes. The ATT representative isn’t afraid to bang in the pocket, but his lack of head movement can get him clipped. Schnell has lost recently to big punchers or strong wrestlers, neither of which describe Inoue. But the Japanese prospect already looks like a put-together fighter, demonstrating defensive awareness, poise, and intelligent aggression. With a year passing since his last fight, I expect the youngster to look better than ever. He outboxes and out-scrambles Schnell to take a decision victory.

Flyweights
Jenel Lausa (7-4) vs. Yuta Sasaki (20-5-2)
Odds: Sasaki (-300), Lausa (+250)

Lausa was supposed to meet Ashkan Mokhtarian in this matchup, but the Aussie pulled out in May to be replaced by beanpole grappler Sasaki. Lausa has yet to demonstrate that he can do more than survive against a UFC-caliber opponent, getting ground out by both Magomed Bibulatov and Eric Shelton. The Filipino is primarily a heavy-handed boxer, with a liking for high-amplitude takedowns. But his wrestling and grappling defense remain weaknesses. This will be the quintessential striker vs. grappler matchup, as Sasaki is far and away at his best on the mat. The Japanese fighter is flashy and charismatic when he is striking, but he requires a space he has thus far been unable to maintain. The southpaw frantically shuffles laterally when pressured, which happens easily due to his lack of a jab. Once stuck near the cage, his towering chin calls out to be blasted by overhand punches. Sasaki doesn’t have great wrestling defense, but his length and judo skills make him an able takedown threat in the clinch. Whether on top or bottom, Sasaki is aggressive on the mat, looking to sneak to the back or throwing up submissions from his back. He can be ground out and frustrated by highly skilled, patient top players, but Lausa does not fit that mold in any way, shape or form. Even on short notice, Sasaki will be able to force his game on the one-note Lausa. Sasaki drags Lausa to the mat and relentlessly hunts the rear-naked choke until he captures it, likely in the first round.

Women’s Flyweights
Melinda Fabian (4-3-2) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (7-1-2)
Odds: not available

Fabian has underwhelmed in her two high-profile appearances, getting choked out by Rachel Ostovich on TUF and drawing with DeAnna Bennett at the finale. The Hungarian striker has been tense and reluctant to let her hands go. Her stiffness has also translated to poor head movement, so Ostovich was able to crack her with overhands on a couple of occasions. The Hawaiian eventually took Fabian down with relative ease, softened her up with strikes and sunk in the choke that eliminated her from the competition. Fabian’s takedown defense was much better against Bennett, but she struggled to create any space, spending long stretches of the fight with her back to the fence, elbowing Bennett. I favor Kim in this matchup of two strikers because she is far more comfortable letting her hands go. The Korean isn’t a defensive genius, but she hits hard, firing an overhand right or swinging body shots behind her jab. And we haven’t seen it much in the UFC, but Kim is a tight, suffocating, aggressive grappler. If the fight hits the mat, she’ll have the advantage. But Kim takes a kickboxing battle, with some clinch work mixed in, on points.