Preview: UFC Fight Night 130 ‘Thompson vs. Till’

Middleweights
Eric Spicely (10-3) vs. Darren Stewart (7-3)
Odds: Spicely (-185), Stewart (+160)

I feel like I know exactly how this fight will play out, but I also have no idea who is going to win. It feels like a two-true-outcomes fight: either Stewart shucks off Spicely’s increasingly desperate takedown attempts and beats him senseless, or Spicely manages to drag Stewart to the floor - likely aided by a mental lapse from “The Dentist” - and taps him out. Of their nine UFC bouts, only Stewart’s sluggish rematch with Francimar Barroso made it to the third frame. And I blame Barroso, a notorious grinder, for that.

Stewart has a taekwondo background, but he’s most comfortable putting his opponent’s back on the cage. There he’ll work takedowns and knees or disengage and throw heaters in close quarters. The Brit is a decent wrestler offensively and defensively, capable of a good reactive shot if opponents get too aggressive in space. But he tends to be less effective against the cage, tiring himself out continually trying to drag his man down. And his full-power haymakers and occasional spinning attacks serve to quickly sap his energy as well. So while he enjoyed some success bombing away on Julian Marquez against the fence in his last fight, he had to fight off multiple submission attempts and ultimately succumbed, exhausted, to a ten-finger guillotine choke he shot into.

Spicely could make him pay in much the same way, if he can last long enough. “Zebrinha” is a BJJ black belt with a pair of first-round chokes on his UFC ledger, including a shocking one on the extremely dangerous Thiago Santos. But he isn’t a great athlete, his wrestling is mediocre, and his striking is rough, to say the least. Spicely looks to close the distance, fire a right hand, and follow right behind it with a shot. If he has to settle for pushing his foe into the fence, he’ll continue trying trip takedowns or switch to double-legs. Sam Alvey was able to catch him in a surprising ten-finger guillotine in such a position. While the Syndicate MMA rep is only successful 25% of the times he shoots, he still lands 2.5 takedowns per fight. And Spicely isn’t above pulling guard either; he quickly trapped Alessio Di Chirico in a triangle after a failed takedown resulted in him being on his back.

So both men have crystal clear gameplans to follow. I have absolutely no faith in this pick, but I’m going with Spicely. He got folded by a Gerald Meerschaert body kick in his last outing, but Stewart doesn’t have the same authority on his long-range weapons. Worst of all for Stewart, he likes wrestling and being in the clinch. Even if he doesn’t try to take “Zebrinha” down, fighting him in a phone booth will give him every opportunity to tie up and try to drag the fight down by any means necessary. Stewart should be able to thwart Spicely’s so-so wrestling and go hammer town on him. But I have to pick the fighter who has exceeded expectations at times and has the most dangerous skill set. Either way, I don’t see this going to the scorecards, but I’m picking Spicely by 2nd-round submission.

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