Preview: UFC Fight Night 130 ‘Thompson vs. Till’

Welterweights
Claudio Silva (11-1) vs. Nordine Taleb (14-4)
Odds: Taleb (-320), Silva (+260)

You’d be forgiven for thinking this is Silva’s debut when in fact it is his third fight in the UFC; he already boasts victories over Brad Scott and Leon Edwards. But they were in 2014. I had absolutely no memory of him when I fired up Fight Pass to check him out. The Brazilian holds a black belt in jiu-jitsu and splits his training between England and Nova Uniao. After fighting Scott at middleweight and looking horrifically slow, uncoordinated, and out of shape, Silva dropped to 170 and looked a bit better. His striking still looked abysmal, as he got badly boxed up by both his opponents. But the southpaw does pack pop in his winging hooks, painfully slow as they may be. Obviously Silva is much more imposing on the mat. His wrestling is so-so, but he will sweep his way to top position if given the opportunity, advance to a dominant position, then drop hammerfists and hunt chokes. But unless he has drastically shored up his striking in his long absence, I expect him to be cannon fodder for Taleb. The Canadian is a well-rounded, strapping welterweight, so there will be no size advantage for Silva. The Tristar Gym standout has extremely strong hips, successfully stuffing nearly 80% of opponents’ takedowns while landing 2.5 per fight himself. Taleb is workmanlike on the feet, with a sharp 1-2 and a steady diet of leg kicks. I don’t know if he’ll put his foot on the gas and really try to get Silva out of there, or if he’ll calmly stuff the takedowns and steadily kickbox his way to a decision. After such a long layoff, I expect Silva’s suspect cardio to be even worse, so Taleb pounds him out in the third.

Middleweights
Daniel Kelly (13-3) vs. Tom Breese (10-1)
Odds: Breese (-310), Kelly (+255)

40-year-old Kelly has suffered back-to-back losses to Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou since putting together an unlikely four-fight winning streak. He took somewhat surprising wins over Rashad Evans and Antonio Carlos Junior in that time, becoming a cult favorite for his overachievement and likeness to Brett Favre. His recent setbacks, albeit to ranked opponents, have highlighted his advancing age and slow-footedness that form a permanent barrier to the top 15. The four-time Olympic judoka doesn’t have Rousey-esque strength and athleticism relative to his competition, so he’s not rag-dolling middleweights all over the cage. Instead, his clinch and grappling background give him strong control in tie-ups, make him extremely difficult to ground and control, and enable him to hit surprising trips and reaps, often in transitions. The Aussie pairs these with toughness and increasingly crafty boxing. Breese is 14 years Kelly’s junior, so he will have a decided advantage in speed, and likely cardio and durability too. But the Englishman could join Kelly in heavily wrapping his knees after tearing his ACL and meniscus a year ago. This was a month after he was supposed to make his middleweight debut against Oluwale Bamgbose but pulled out the day of the fight with an elevated heart rate. These raise questions about the formerly highly-touted prospect going forward. Breese is a southpaw as well, with a three-inch height and reach advantage. He should make good use of them, as long punches and kicks are favorite weapons. Takedown defense has traditionally been a problem for the Tristar Gym standout, but he is a more than capable grappler, even competing at the Eddie Bravo Invitational during his layoff. Breese rebounds from his first career loss with a decision victory by out-landing the rugged but slowing Kelly.

Welterweights
Bradley Scott (11-5) vs. Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (10-1)
Odds: Scott (+150), Pedersoli (-170)

Scott has alternated wins and losses across his seven UFC contests, most recently falling by TKO to Jack Hermansson. “Bear” is a solid boxer who likes to pressure, but he hasn’t always been able to execute effectively. The Brit is at his best when he can step inside and uncork head-body combinations, and if mixes in kicks, as he did against Scott Askham, he is that much more dangerous. Against Krzysztof Jotko and Jack Hermansson, though, their awkward, unpredictable movement left him gun-shy and chasing, absorbing kicks and counters. Ironically, Scott’s two UFC finishes are by guillotine choke rather than TKO, so he is not unskilled on the mat. He’s not much of an offensive wrestler, but his takedown defense stands at a respectable 68%. The MMA Lab representative is dropping back down to welterweight to face newcomer Pedersoli, stepping in on about two weeks’ notice for Salim Touahri. The Italian just decisioned UFC vet Nicolas Dalby at a Cage Warriors event less than a month ago. The southpaw has brown belts in karate and kudo to go along with a purple belt in BJJ, and he has a pretty even mixture of knockouts and submissions across his ten wins. He kicks often, sending round kicks at all targets while mixing in spinning attacks as well. But his kicks are a bit slow and can be caught. Granted, he did floor Dalby with a head kick while dipping way off to the side, a la Carlos Condit versus GSP. Pedersoli has a nice 1-2 and his left packs some pop, but he’s less effective when he gets wide and wild with it. “Semento” looks to be a decent if unspectacular wrestler, and he has an active guard if put on his back. Scott once again has his back against the wall, and I think this is a winnable fight for him, especially considering the short notice. The Italian should be down to bang and doesn’t have the wrestling chops to consistently ground Scott. The Brit’s hands keep him afloat. He evens his UFC record at 4-4 with a decision win.

Women’s Flyweights
Gillian Robertson (4-2) vs. Molly McCann (7-1)
Odds: Robertson (+205), McCann (-245)

This line might be a little wide, but I do favor McCann. Her size and strength will help her fend off the takedowns from Robertson, who really needs the fight on the floor to be effective. The BJJ purple belt is aggressive on the mat, whether on top or in guard. Only 23 years old and training at American Top Team, her striking will continue to develop, but she’ll be at a significant disadvantage against “Meatball” in that department. The Liverpudlian gets good weight transfer into her punches and she nearly always throws in combination. That’s bad news for Robertson, who doesn’t move her head well and is only comfortable throwing one shot at a time. “The Savage” has shown some ability to chain takedowns together, which she’ll need. If she gets stuck trying to hold McCann against the cage, she’ll get outmuscled, reversed, and beat up. Robertson will have some success, but the Brit is going to keep the fight in her wheelhouse more often than not. McCann punches her way to an entertaining decision.

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