Preview: UFC 200 ‘Lesnar vs. Hunt’

Women’s Bantamweights

Cat Zingano (9-1) vs. Julianna Pena (7-2): Two uber-aggressive women with a penchant for questionable strategies -- this one is going to be good. Pena lacks the leg attacks of Miesha Tate, who had great success wrestling Zingano in 2013, but like her teammate Michael Chiesa, she is a dogged and crafty wrestler in the clinch, using a variety of trips, twists and hip tosses to drag her foe to the ground. She is also a fast starter who pushes a relentless pace, while Zingano, herself no stranger to high-octane brawls, tends to start slow and ramp up over the course of 15 minutes. Zingano is a slippery scrambler, which will help her in navigating Pena’s ruthless grappling attack, but she is also too willing to oblige more seasoned grapplers. Neither she nor Pena is a good defensive fighter -- in fact, both are downright easy to hit -- but both women refuse to back down and will happily trade punches at mid-range. Though that kind of matchup could easily see either woman win, it favors Pena’s determined grappling and ground-and-pound. Pena wins via unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Johny Hendricks (17-4) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (11-2): Two southpaws, two punchers and two men who have struggled mightily with weight management and conditioning in the past. The feeling is that Hendricks is on the downslide, even though his only recent losses are to Georges St-Pierre, Robbie Lawler and Stephen Thompson -- in other words, the G.O.A.T., the champ and the Next Big Thing. A loss to Gastelum would be both a new low for Hendricks and an unprecedented high for Gastelum, whose rapid rise through the welterweight ranks was hobbled by a pair of losses to Tyron Woodley and Neil Magny. Gastelum has been training under Rafael Cordeiro for over half a year, and though Magny managed to stifle the confidence and aggression for which Kings MMA fighters are known, that relationship should bear fruit very soon. He may not have looked it against Thompson, but Hendricks is generally quite comfortable in exchanges. His striking game has grown by leaps and bounds, while Gastelum has been showing the same defensive flaws -- standing tall in the pocket, leaving his feet out of position -- since his UFC debut over three years ago; and while Hendricks lacks Magny’s frame, he has the boxing and kicking skills to force Gastelum out of position, opening him up for power shots and suffocating clinch work. This is a tough one to call, but the pick is Hendricks by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

T.J. Dillashaw (12-3) vs. Raphael Assuncao (23-4): However you scored it, Dillashaw was extremely competitive with the best version of Dominick Cruz yet seen in the Octagon; and though Dillashaw has improved since, Assuncao bested him by split decision in their first fight. Dillashaw’s edge was his movement, wrestling and kicking game, and that should be the case once again. Assuncao remains one of the best counterpunchers in the bantamweight division, and while Dillashaw is not a perfect defensive fighter, he more than makes up for that with pressure and varied offense. Assuncao also tends to accept the range and pace his opponent chooses, which gives Dillashaw the chance to change up things over the course of three rounds. Add to that the fact that Assuncao has not stepped foot in the cage since October 2014, while Dillashaw has been visiting North America’s best MMA gyms non-stop in an effort to improve his game. It should be another fantastic fight between these two great bantamweights, but the former champion is just too dangerous and unpredictable. Dillashaw by third-round knockout is the pick.

Lightweights

Sage Northcutt (7-1) vs. Enrique Marin (8-3): Northcutt is an MMA natural. Whether scrambling, setting up takedowns with strikes or countering opponents on the way in, “Super Sage” has a knack for transitions. His game lives in the connective tissue between phases and ranges. That strength is also Northcutt’s greatest weakness. He is so reliant on the transitions that whenever his opponents manage to trap him in one location for any extended amount of time, it becomes clear that Northcutt’s game lacks technical depth. This is compounded by his inexperience. Bryan Barberena was able to put Northcutt on the path to defeat simply by taking his shots and refusing to back down. When Northcutt ran out of ideas, he wilted, and the durable Barberena had little difficulty in finishing him off. Like Barberena, Marin is tough and fairly unflappable, which makes him an interesting test for the still-developing Northcutt. He is neither as defensively savvy as Barberena nor as skilled on the ground or in the clinch. He should be able to put Northcutt in a few tough spots, but so long as Northcutt has made some improvements and learned from his first loss, it should be a test he is able to overcome. The pick is Northcutt by second-round submission.

Lightweights

Diego Sanchez (26-8) vs. Joe Lauzon (25-11): It feels like years since Sanchez actually looked like a reliable fighter. Lauzon, however, has never been a reliable fighter. Lauzon’s last streak of more than two consecutive wins ended way back in 2007, and he is batting just over .500 ever since; and here is the crazy thing: According to FightMetric, Lauzon is actually marginally easier to hit than Sanchez. Another interesting stat: Since his win over Clay Guida over seven years ago, Sanchez has never lost a fight in which he has gotten more takedowns than his opponent. Like Jim Miller, the man he just defeated, Sanchez is a southpaw. Since 2011, Lauzon has faced five southpaws, counting Anthony Pettis, and lost to four of them. Though it feels impossible to put any faith in “The Nightmare,” Sanchez is still durable in a way that “J-Lau” has never been and too methodical on the ground to get caught in one of Lauzon’s famous submissions. The final piece of evidence: Sanchez has only been finished once -- by a cut -- in 34 fights; Lauzon has won by decision only once. I feel like a crazy man, but the pick is Sanchez by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2) vs. Thiago Santos (13-3): When Santos upset Elias Theodorou, it was renewed takedown defense and clinch fighting that brought him to victory. Against Nate Marquardt, he had improved his pocket boxing and counterpunching skills. Against Mousasi, Santos will need both of those things. Despite periodic stumbles, Mousasi remains a crafty and well-rounded fighter. Mousasi is excellent at managing distance against aggressive opponents, using his bedeviling jab to sting his adversary over and over on the way in. Takedowns play an important role, as well, and Mousasi has superb control and passing from top position to complement his underrated wrestling. Santos, however, is unlikely to charge Mousasi the way past opponents have; instead, the Brazilian will look to maintain distance himself, in order to employ his devastating kicking game. Should Mousasi get Santos down for any extended period of time, the complexion of the fight will change, but on the feet, at long range, Santos’ power and dexterity give him the edge. Santos by unanimous decision is the pick.

Lightweights

Jim Miller (25-8) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-11): What a way to open a card, and what a perfect matchup for two aging and shopworn but still thoroughly entertaining fighters. A decade ago, Gomi was widely considered the best lightweight on the planet. He was a potent, instinctive fighter with serious skill to back up his natural talents. Today, he relies more and more on power and durability, and the latter seems to be leaving him: Gomi was rendered senseless in each of his last two fights after having gone an incredible 16 years without a single knockout loss. While Miller has never enjoyed the kind of chin that made Gomi such a tank, his physical decline has also been less marked, no doubt due to the fact that he is five years younger and seven years less experienced than “The Fireball Kid.” Gomi’s trademark combination punching is more of a liability than a threat now that his chin is starting to crack, and without his old speed, his flat-footed style leaves him wide open for takedowns. Miller has won 13 fights by submission; Gomi has been submitted six times. The odds favor the Jersey Boy. Miller by second-round submission is the pick.

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