Preview: UFC 200 ‘Lesnar vs. Hunt’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend
LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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LIVE DOG: Brock Lesnar. On a card chock-full of closely matched contests, Lesnar has the clearest path to victory: take down Mark Hunt, pin him and punish him for stealing Lesnar’s stash of strawberries. Hunt has good takedown defense, but his bottom game remains underdeveloped. That is a serious drawback against one of the most punishing top players in heavyweight history. At +145, “The Beast Incarnate” is worth a look.

SURE THING: Miesha Tate. While I could definitely see Amanda Nunes taking off Tate’s head, a quick knockout is never a safe bet, especially against a fighter as durable and determined as Tate; and as potent a strength as Nunes’ striking has been, her stamina is an even bigger weakness. If this one goes past the first round -- which it probably will -- then it will be all downhill for Nunes. Tate currently sits at -261.

SMOKE BREAK: Sage Northcutt vs. Enrique Marin. Yes, I suppose “Super Sage” is exciting to watch, and it was certainly exciting to see Bryan Barberena beat him. In terms of pure entertainment value, I would probably rather see him than see guys like Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller get beaten up. However, those guys have earned your attention. If you need to make a beer run or run to the door to pay the pizza man, you do it during Northcutt’s fight. You owe it to all the other fighters on this card to watch them fight.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.