Preview: UFC 192 ‘Cormier vs. Gustafsson’

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Flyweights

Joseph Benavidez (22-4) vs Ali Bagautinov (13-3): It has been more than a year since Bagautinov last set foot in the Octagon, and that performance saw him losing to flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Bagautinov is a well-rounded fighter with a fondness for kickboxing from the outside. His lack of volume has been a problem in the past, but a capable wrestling game has been enough to keep most opponents from overwhelming him. That is unlikely to work against Benavidez, who throws volume like nobody else in the top 10 of the division. Benavidez has so-so defense, but his striking variety is enough to keep most opponents from getting too many ideas, and his solid defensive wrestling and scrambling ability, combined with a knack for cinching brutal guillotine chokes, makes him a force to be reckoned with across the board. The pick is Benavidez by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Yair Rodriguez (6-1) vs Daniel Hooker (12-5): Rodriguez had an impressive coming-out party in his UFC 188 contest with the crafty Charles Rosa. Rodriguez used excellent submission grappling and a surprisingly dexterous kicking game to keep Rosa reacting for the extent of the bout. Hooker is more than capable as a defensive grappler, with a heavy focus on using the cage to return to his feet and occasionally punishing his opponent in the clinch with elbows and knees. Hooker’s big weakness is his striking defense, as he has been hurt in all but one of his three UFC showings. I have my doubts, however, that Rodriguez is equipped to exploit this flaw. Combination punchers have been Hooker’s worst enemy in the UFC so far, and Rodriguez simply is not that kind of fighter; and despite his vulnerabilities, Hooker has never been knocked out. Meanwhile, he has stopped 11 of his 17 opponents. The pick is Hooker by TKO in round three.

Welterweights

Alan Jouban (11-3) vs Albert Tumenov (15-2): This matchup between welterweight knockout artists seems guaranteed to deliver quality action. It is risky to rely on Jouban to win given his tendency to fight down to the level of his competition, but his refusal to back down makes it just as risky to count him out altogether. While hittable on the feet, Jouban takes and responds to punishment well, using the stimulus of his opponent’s punches to stir him into a frenzy of cracking punches, thudding kicks and vicious knees and elbows. Jouban’s instinct for clinch fighting and comfort in the pocket make him a force to be reckoned with in exchanges. Tumenov, on the other hand, is a far more defensively minded fighter, though no less dangerous when he lets go, which he does frequently and with ill intent. This is not to say Tumenov is impossible to hit -- his voluminous striking means he spends a lot of time within his opponent’s range -- but he uses excellent angular footwork to protect himself from serious harm, while at the same time positioning himself to land damaging combinations of punches and kicks. From an action perspective, this fight is the real highlight of the prelims. Jouban’s tenacity and hair-trigger killer instinct makes him a perpetual threat, but it is Tumenov’s versatility will most likely decide this matchup. The pick is Tumenov by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Rose Namajunas (3-2) vs Angela Hill (2-1): A compelling pairing sees two of the most promising prospects in one of the sport’s most prospect-laden divisions collide. Namajunas was touted as “the next Ronda Rousey” during her stint on Season 20 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but her inexperience cost her in the final against Carla Esparza. Namajunas relied too heavily on wild, eccentric striking and Hail-Mary submissions, allowing the workmanlike Esparza to wear her down en route to a third-round submission. Hill possesses a similar degree of athletic talent, but her game is growing in a more conventional direction. Precise muay Thai combined with stout takedown defense sees Hill developing a style not unlike that of strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. It is possible that Namajunas has learned from past mistakes and fixed some of the holes in her game, but I see Hill surviving her early flurries and stopping her mediocre takedowns. Hill wins by hard-fought unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Adriano Martins (27-7) vs Islam Makhachev (12-0): Like many of the sambists currently inundating the ranks of the UFC, Makhachev is a supremely well-rounded fighter whose standout skill is his ability to blend all other skills together. Makhachev excels at punching his way into the clinch, where he switches seamlessly from dirty boxing to a variety of eye-catching takedowns. His transitions are no less impressive on the ground, where he seems to find his opponent’s back from nearly any position. Though a skilled grappler himself, Martins gets by more on athleticism than craft. He can, however, be surprisingly slick on the feet, as when he outstruck Donald Cerrone before leaning into a fight-ending head kick. Martins already dealt impressively with another sambist in Rustam Khabilov, but Makhachev is a more complete fighter and I think he will find a way to outwork the Brazilian vet. Makhachev by unanimous decision is the pick.

Flyweights

Chris Cariaso (17-7) vs Sergio Pettis (12-2): Two men preceded by spotty reputations meet in this battle of fringe 125-pound contenders. Cariaso is not necessarily known for exciting fights, but his tenacity deserves respect. An avid fan of the left kick and the right jab, Cariaso does not mix up tactics particularly well, but he responds admirably to adversity, answering with pace and guts what he cannot solve with technique. Pettis is in many ways the opposite. Like other Roufusport fighters, Pettis is an offensive marvel but somewhat lacking in the defensive department. Unlike big brother Anthony Pettis or teammate Chico Camus, however, he lacks the durability -- and the comfort that often comes with it -- to consistently overcome this flaw. In a word, Pettis struggles under pressure. Fortunately for him, Cariaso lacks the power of Ryan Benoit, who came from behind to knock out Pettis in March. If Pettis retains any hope of becoming a top contender, he will come in focused and determined not to drop two in a row. It should be enough to bank him two rounds. The pick is Pettis by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Derrick Lewis (12-4) vs Viktor Pesta (10-1): Guaranteed excitement, Lewis is a venomous puncher who lives and dies by the first-round knockout. With a limited grappling game and questionable fight IQ, Lewis either wins in the first round or does not win at all. Lately, he has been getting knocked out himself. It is doubtful whether or not Pesta will be able to put away Lewis. However, we can have no doubts about Pesta’s toughness and tenacity after his decision victory over heavyweight knockout artist Konstantin Erokhin, who had Pesta badly hurt in the first round but simply could not finish the job. Pesta will likely have an early scare or two in this fight, but he should be able to survive and grind out a win. Pesta by TKO in round two is the pick.

Lightweights

Francisco Trevino (12-1) vs Sage Northcutt (5-0, 0-0 UFC): Undefeated prospect Northcutt should expect a decent test in Trevino, but it is a test he can absolutely pass. With a Shotokan background, Northcutt uses bouncy footwork and a strong kicking game to keep his opponents at bay, relying heavily on a lead leg side kick to control the distance. Like the Lyoto Machida of yesteryear, Northcutt will wait for his opponent to become frustrating before letting him lunge into his powerful counterpunches. On the ground, Northcutt is a capable submission grappler. Trevino, on the other hand, is a jack of all trades, his willingness to exchange balanced out by a limited ability to win those exchanges. The pick is Northcutt by unanimous decision.

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