Preview: UFC 192 ‘Cormier vs. Gustafsson’

---

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

* * *

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

* * *

BEST VALUE: Bader. Perhaps no fighter has ever had more consistently valuable betting odds than “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 winner. Despite a rock-solid resume and a well-rounded style, Bader is frequently an underdog. For some reason, bettors are favoring the undersized Evans -- whose effectiveness has always relied on his ability to make his wrestling work -- to beat the giant Bader, his equal in both wrestling and striking. Factor in the fact that Evans has been nursing injuries on the sidelines for nearly two years now, and you have yourself one sweet underdog bet. Bader can currently be found on some sportsbooks at +140 or better.

LIVE DOG: Hooker. I waffled between Hooker and Hill for this selection. Both find themselves against phenomenal athletes that maybe rely a little too heavily on their athleticism to get things done. Unike Hill, however, Hooker is a fully formed fighter, confident in his own abilities and with a respectable track record. Rodriguez is the favorite for a reason, and his outstanding athleticism may very well prove too much for Hooker to handle. With that said, Rodriguez cannot fight like Maximo Blanco, and even Blanco in peak form struggled to put away Hooker. He is teak tough and mean enough to do serious damage with the extra time that toughness affords him.

SURE THING: UFC 192 is extremely well-matched from top to bottom. There are no glaring one-sided fights, and virtually every fighter has a clear path to victory -- except one. For the life of me, I cannot see how Trevino beats Northcutt, unless Northcutt suffers some sort of catastrophic adrenaline dump after the first round. Northcutt’s every movement screams athleticism, while Trevino strikes one as just an ordinary guy who happens to be pretty good at MMA. I give Northcutt the advantage in that matchup any day of the week.

CAN’T MISS: Jouban vs. Tumenov. This fight should have it all: heavy punches and kicks, momentum swings and plenty of polished, high-level technique. Jouban is just hittable enough to make any fight interesting, and his warrior’s spirit means that the harder he is pushed, the harder he fights back. With a precision striker like Tumenov on the other side of the Octagon, I would be shocked if this bout was anything less than spectacular.

SMOKE BREAK: Bader vs. Evans. What do you get when you have two wrestlers with decaying standup who are both good enough to negate the wrestling skills of the other but neither aggressive enough to do anything with the resultant kickboxing match? Both of these men have fought and beaten Phil Davis in matchups all but identical to this one, and I am not exactly nursing fond memories of those bouts. I expect this one to look very much the same, though the fact that it will likely decide the next challenger for the light heavyweight strap automatically makes it main-card worthy.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.