Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘McGregor vs. Siver’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Norman Parke (20-2-1, 4-0-1 UFC) vs. Gleison Tibau (32-10, 15-8 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Northern Ireland’s Parke gets a big test in longtime lightweight gatekeeper Tibau, who enters his 10th year of competition under the UFC banner. Parke, the winner of “The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes,” has been on a solid run. He most recently defeated the overmatched Naoyuki Kotani in July and is due for a substantial step up in competition. Tibau took a split decision from Piotr Hallmann in September and beat Pat Healy in his prior outing.

Parke, a judo black belt, is a talented and evolving young fighter with good athleticism. He is an excellent wrestler with a deep arsenal of trips and throws, a nice single-leg and nearly impenetrable takedown defense. The clinch is a particular point of strength, as Parke can grind away against the fence, land heavy knees and elbows and work his own takedowns. Top control is probably his best all-around skill set, as he maintains a rock-solid base, passes quickly and rains down brutal shots with fight-finishing power and killer instinct. At range, however, Parke’s game has yet to really come into its own. He throws a substantial volume of strikes from his southpaw stance but lacks anything in the way of power in either his punches or kicks. Additionally, his head movement, angles and pivots and strike selection, all the nuances of his approach, come and go without any real rhyme or reason. The basics are certainly in place: He mixes up things and has an especially crisp straight left. On the whole, however, Parke still has a long way to go before he becomes a particularly imposing striker.

Tibau is an experienced and highly skilled warhorse, and with 23 UFC bouts under his belt, there is little mystery about what he will try to do in the Octagon. The longtime American Top Team fighter’s game is predicated around his plus athleticism and brutal strength, which powers his technical wrestling repertoire and suffocating control. Chaining well-timed doubles and singles and finishing with slick technique and authoritative slams are the hallmarks of Tibau’s game, and from top position, he is almost impossible to budge as he works slow-paced positional advancements and strikes. On the feet, the Brazilian throws a wicked left hand and left kick, and while there is nothing flashy about his striking, it packs a bit of power and serves to cover Tibau’s takedowns.

BETTING ODDS: Tibau (-140), Parke (+120)

THE PICK: Is Parke the real deal? We will know a lot more after this fight, and that was undoubtedly matchmaker Joe Silva’s intention in booking it. This is a close fight. Parke’s takedown defense has thus far proven to be outstanding, but the best wrestler he has faced is probably Kazuki Tokudome, and Tibau is an entirely different kind of challenge. Conversely, Tibau is almost impossible to get to the floor -- even a wrestler as accomplished as Khabib Nurmagomedov came up empty on 13 attempts -- so this will likely be contested on the feet and in the clinch. I am not sold on Parke’s range striking, but he should have the advantage in output, and his strong skills in the tie-ups make me think he can at least hang with Tibau on the inside. This is an extremely tentative pick, but I think Parke can edge out a narrow decision.

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