Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘McGregor vs. Siver’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Sean Spencer (12-3, 3-2 UFC) vs. Cathal Pendred (15-2-1, 2-0 UFC): This is a reasonably interesting matchup between solid mid-tier welterweights. Ireland’s Pendred is a solid clinch fighter, wrestler and top control specialist who relies on his cardio, relentlessness and durability to win fights. Spencer is essentially a sprawl-and-brawler with excellent output in his low-power kickboxing game. He prefers to work behind a long jab-cross combination and low kicks, and he is a decent defensive wrestler. The American is not an especially outstanding athlete, but he is much faster than the glacially slow Pendred, and I think he can stuff takedowns and use his constant output to outstrike the Irishman. The pick is Spencer by close decision.

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WELTERWEIGHTS

John Howard (22-10, 6-5 UFC) vs. Lorenz Larkin (14-4, 1-4 UFC): Two veterans meet here, with the loser nearly certain to lose his spot on the roster. Larkin was once a highly touted young fighter, and with good reason: He is exceptionally quick, hits hard and owns a flashy striking arsenal of punches and spinning kicks backed up with excellent takedown defense. A combination of bad judging and poor performances has left him on the cusp of getting cut, and he drops to welterweight for one last chance. Howard is billed as a striker with a powerful left hand and right low kick, but he tends to win with his strong, stifling wrestling and clinch games. Unless Larkin has completely fallen off a cliff, this is his fight to lose, and I think he will take a clear decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Chris Wade (8-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Lipeng Zhang (9-7-1, 2-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter: China” winner Zhang gets his first big step up in competition, as he takes on Long Island’s Wade. Despite Zhang’s underwhelming record, he is a plus athlete and boasts decent skills. He is a strong wrestler, especially in the clinch, and maintains good control from top position. Wade is a tank of a fighter with excellent clinch skills of his own, a strong overall wrestling game and fairly decent striking and grappling acumen. This should be a close-range, grinding fight, and that kind of matchup should favor the American. The pick here is Wade by decision.

FLYWEIGHTS

Patrick Holohan (10-1-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Shane Howell (13-8, 0-1 UFC): Touted Irishman Holohan looks to get back on track after being badly upset by debuting, late-notice replacement Chris Kelades in his last outing. He draws Howell, who was quickly choked into unconsciousness by Ray Borg in his UFC debut in June. Howell is a fairly straightforward brawler, though he can wrestle a bit and excels at jumping on hurt opponents with chokes. Holohan has a dynamic and dangerous game, with venomous submissions from his guard and on top, and he boasts an unorthodox but fundamentally sound boxing repertoire on the feet. The problem is Holohan’s deficient wrestling, lackadaisical output and willingness to play on his back, but there is no denying his raw talent. Howell’s weakness has traditionally been the submission, and that seems like a safe bet against a grappler of the Irishman’s caliber. The pick here is Holohan by submission in the first round.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Johnny Case (19-4, 1-0 UFC) vs. Frankie Perez (9-1, 0-0 UFC): Case returns to action after taking his UFC debut over Kazuki Tokudome with a slick guillotine choke and gets as an opponent debuting prospect Perez. Case is a crisp combination striker who puts together clean, technical punch-kick sequences and backs it up with a strong clinch game and solid takedown defense, although he is not particularly quick and lacks outstanding power. Perez, who trains out of Ricardo Almeida’s gym, alongside such fighters as Frankie Edgar and Edson Barboza, is a fairly well-rounded youngster. He has a nice kicking game and shows decent fundamentals, but he has yet to really put his range striking together into a coherent package. He is better on the inside and from top position, and he has a consistent nose for the submission. “Hollywood” has substantial advantages at striking distance, is much bigger and should be able to stuff Perez’s takedowns without too much trouble, so the pick here is Case by decision.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Charles Rosa (9-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Sean Soriano (8-2, 0-2 UFC): Two talented featherweight prospects meet in a potential loser-leaves-town matchup. American Top Team’s Rosa lost a late-notice decision against Dennis Siver in Sweden in October but acquitted himself well, while the Blackzilians’ Soriano dropped fights to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Chas Skelly. Soriano is a big, powerful sprawl-and-brawler with a technically sound game that revolves around punch-kick combinations at range and hard knees in the clinch. Rosa is at his best on the ground, but he possesses a nice kicking game and a decent takedown repertoire to go along with it. The pick here is Soriano by decision in a fun, back-and-forth fight contested mostly on the feet.

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Matt Van Buren (6-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. Sean O’Connell (15-6, 0-2 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter 19” finalist Van Buren takes on journeyman O’Connell with a UFC roster slot on the line. The quick-paced, pressuring O’Connell is experienced, tough, has real power in his hands and does his best work in the pocket and the clinch, but he is not terribly technical at range and is eminently hittable. The rangy 6-foot-5 Van Buren is a capable infighter in his own right and can sling solid punch-kick combinations at range, but he lacks much of a wrestling or grappling game. Neither of these guys is going to set the world on fire, but I think O’Connell’s output and constant pressure will be too much for Van Buren to handle. O’Connell by decision is the pick.

BANTAMWEIGHTS

Joby Sanchez (6-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. Tateki Matsuda (10-6, 0-1 UFC): Top prospect Sanchez gets another chance in the UFC following a short-notice debut loss against the veteran Wilson Reis in August, as he draws fellow second-timer Matsuda. Sanchez, a Jackson-Wink MMA product, is a great athlete with smooth circular movement at range, solid takedown defense and a propensity for leaping in and out with powerful single punches and kicks. Matsuda is a rawhide-tough pressure fighter with a granite chin, great output in his boxing game and strong work on the inside, but he is hittable and lacks a second dimension, much less a third. This profiles as a nice rebound fight for the talented Sanchez, but if he does not let his punches and kicks go, he will probably lose on volume. Still, the balance of likelihood falls in the direction of Sanchez winning by decision.

Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.