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Featherweights

Dennis Bermudez (14-5) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-8-2)

THE MATCHUP: Technically, Bermudez is among the best fighters in the featherweight division. He throws tight, technical punches and kicks, moves laterally in both directions and attacks the head and the body with equal prejudice. His problem is his curious commitment to pressure against each and every opponent. Bermudez’s technicality may in fact be the product of a “rote” mindset. “The Menace” strikes as if running through pad drills with his trainer, as if unaware of the real dangers in front of him, and yet consistently puts himself in range to be hit; and when he does get hit, he tends to get hurt.

Bermudez’s wrestling has often been his saving grace. In his many back-and-forth wars, the clinch has been a great friend, and Bermudez often augments his strength by pinning the opponent against the fence. There, he uses head pressure and intelligent grips to control his opponent while chipping away with knees and short punches. Bermudez is equally adept as a defensive wrestler. He can appear two or three weight classes bigger than his opponents when he easily stuffs their takedowns and throws them to the ground. Once there, Bermudez has a dangerous submission game well-suited to his wrestling base. He threatens with chokes from the front headlock and spins to the back to threaten the rear-naked choke, always choosing to return to his feet rather than ending up on bottom when the finish fails to materialize.

Kawajiri may have a win over Japanese muay Thai legend Kozo Takeda, but he is no kickboxer. “Crusher” only throws in combination when forced to and looks more like a brawler than a boxer when he does so. At range, he throws in ones and occasional twos. He is also hittable from distance as he stalks with his hands low and his head centered. Kawajiri’s striking really serves as a distraction from his wrestling, though the two are not always well integrated. Over the years, Kawajiri has shown a consistent vulnerability to knees in the clinch, which often land while he is still mentally resetting after a failed takedown.

What Kawajiri’s game lacks in subtlety, it makes up for in grit. Kawajiri will dive on takedown after takedown in order to get his opponent to the ground, happily devouring a surprising amount of damage in the process. Once Kawajiri links his hands together, however, there are few opponents who can stop his takedown. On the ground, the “Crusher” moniker starts to make a lot of sense. Kawajiri is a smothering positional grappler who uses mount and back mount to land punishing ground-and-pound. Kawajiri is not the most dangerous grappler in the world, but his record boasts a near even split between knockouts, submissions and decisions, almost all of them achieved on the ground. The attrition is real.

THE ODDS: Bermudez (-335), Kawajiri (+275)

THE PICK: Bermudez’s persistent faults make this a closer fight than it would be otherwise. If we think only about the ages, styles and athletic abilities of these two fighters, then Bermudez is the runaway winner. Add in Kawajiri’s deep well of experience and the gap begins to narrow. Consider Bermudez’s inability to adapt on the fly, and the fight is potentially very close. When Bermudez’s opponents find something that works, it tends to work at least until he has a chance to consult with his corner. Plus, four of Bermudez’s losses are submissions, most of them occurring in the moments after one of his trademark knockdowns. Still, it is hard to imagine Kawajiri not only successfully closing the distance but outwrestling Bermudez once inside. Kawajiri has enjoyed some pretty favorable matchmaking in the UFC so far, and a fight with Bermudez is quite different from one with Jason Knight or Dennis Siver. Bermudez wins by unanimous decision.

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