Preview: UFC Fight Night 204 ‘Volkov vs. Aspinall’

Welterweights

NR | Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1, 8-5 UFC) vs. NR | Takashi Sato (15-4, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Nelson (-380), Sato (+290)

It is nice to see Nelson back in the cage after a two and a half-year layoff. A longtime fan favorite of the UFC’s European events, the Icelander has been an impressively unique fighter over the course of his career. “Gunni” has backgrounds in both karate and grappling, which, when combined with his martial artist mindset, result in an odd style that focuses on bursts of fight-ending offense. It really should not work in the long haul, but it speaks to Nelson’s skill that he was able to carve out a successful niche for himself almost entirely on that finishing ability, getting to fringe contender status and headlining a few European cards. However, 2019 was a frustrating year for Nelson. Leon Edwards beat him in a fun three-round fight, and then Nelson lost some ground against Gilbert Burns, who had just moved up to lightweight and was able to use consistent pressure to stifle his game. Nelson is still only 33 years old, so there is the chance for him to have a second act as a contender, though it will be interesting to see how he adapts; the sport favors pace and pressure over Nelson’s typically choosy style. After his long layoff, he gets a bit of a soft test against Sato. The Sanford MMA rep is a talented fighter but an extremely patient one who focuses on accurate counters rather than pressing any sort of game on his opponent—a risky proposition against the level of talent on much of the UFC roster. Sato has split his four UFC fights thus far, and his judo background does make this a bit interesting if Nelson decides to focus on getting it to the mat. However, Sato is also going to give the Icelander the slow pace and space to pick his most effective ideas, so it is easy to see Nelson replicating the club-and-sub finish that he has found a few times before. The pick is Nelson via second-round submission.

Continue Reading » Topuria vs. Herbert