Preview: UFC Fight Night 204 ‘Volkov vs. Aspinall’

Lightweights

NR | Ilia Topuria (11-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. NR | Jai Herbert (11-3, 1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Topuria (-435), Herbert (+330)

It was nice to see Herbert get into the win column in October. England’s “Black Country Banger” came to the UFC as a talented but flawed prospect. Herbert has a massive frame for the lightweight division but never seemed content to maximize it, often charging into his opponents for messy fights where he was able to score the finish first. Early on, the UFC’s matchmaking did not do Herbert many favors. He had his moments against Francisco Trinaldo and Renato Carneiro, but they were tough matchups for a UFC newcomer that saw Herbert lose in the end. However, his October win over Khama Worthy was a possible turning point. Beyond scoring a first-round finish, Herbert looked much better as a range striker until the point that he found the knockout. Initially matched with Mike Davis for a fun fight, Herbert gets a much tougher opponent as a replacement in Topuria, who moves up a division for this bout. Through three fights in the UFC, the Spaniard has marked himself as one of the best prospects in the sport. His wrestling and grappling were on display against Youssef Zalal; his brutal combination striking took care of Damon Jackson; and he balanced both to easily dispatch Ryan Hall in a tricky test. Thus far, the only misstep from Topuria was on the scale in January, as weight-cutting issues took him out of a featherweight bout against Charles Jourdain, resulting in this move to 155 pounds; Topuria will apparently compete in both divisions going forward. The massive size advantage for Herbert is a cause for concern, but this mostly looks like Topuria’s fight to lose. If nothing else, he should be able to get this to the ground in short order and take over in brutal fashion, particularly if Herbert goes back to his pressuring ways. The pick is Topuria via first-round stoppage.

Continue Reading » McCann vs. Carolina