Preview: UFC 314 ‘Volkanovski vs. Lopes’

Featherweights

Yair Rodriguez (19-5, 10-4 UFC) vs. Patricio Freire (36-7, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Freire (+160)

Bellator’s losses continue to be the UFC’s gains, as the addition of “Pitbull” to the featherweight roster immediately becomes something to watch. Freire essentially has the only case as Bellator’s greatest fighter of all-time, debuting with the promotion at Bellator 15 in 2010 before going on to win titles at featherweight and lightweight; he even challenged for Bellator’s bantamweight title at one point. While Freire might now be 37 years old, he’s still highly competitive, particularly at featherweight. The Brazilian’s only loss at 145 pounds since 2015 came against A.J. McKee in 2021—a defeat that Freire would wind up avenging in his next fight. Freire has the type of approach that would figure to age well, as his success is often more mental and technical than outright physical. Freire takes a slow, counter-focused approach built on defense, taking opportunities as they come and disincentivizing opponents along the way, though he’s also more than willing to rush in and close the show when the time seems right. At worst, Freire seems set to be another major name that should have some fun and relevant fights in what might be the UFC’s best division, but he could also make a run towards title contention with things currently so opened up. This fight against Rodriguez seems like the immediate right test to see if he can make that charge.

The first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America” resulted in a number of prospects overachieving, led by Rodriguez, who hit the ground running as one of the most electric fighters in the UFC. Beyond his high-level athleticism, “El Pantera” showed a level of creativity that few fighters can match, chaining together techniques that most wouldn’t even consider while outpacing opponent after opponent. Rodriguez had his momentum slowed by a crushing and wrestling-heavy loss to Frankie Edgar in 2017, and his career has been inconsistent from there in terms of activity, as he has been on the outs with the UFC at times and also suffered some major injuries. In between all those issues, Rodriguez still strung together enough success to completely outclass Josh Emmett in a fight for the interim title, which earned him a championship fight against Alexander Volkanovski in 2023. That Volkanovski fight didn’t go particularly well despite a game effort, but Rodriguez’s last fight—a February 2024 loss to Brian Ortega—is much more concerning. A rematch of a 2022 fight that Rodriguez quickly won via injury, the fight saw Ortega eventually sell out on his wrestling and grappling, shockingly tiring out “El Pantera” enough to score a submission finish. Rodriguez might have his flaws, as his creative flash leaves a lot of openings for opponents to find moments of success, but he has previously shown a near-legendary gas tank, most memorably fighting inefficiently but winning a five-round decision against Alex Caceres at elevation in Salt Lake City. That’s a cause of worry if Rodriguez is slowing down despite his relative youth, but the lean is that he will still be a tricky combination of size, speed and power for Freire to deal with given this style matchup. Freire just doesn’t have the approach that will see him try to apply a ton of pressure to attempt to tire Rodriguez out, especially in just a three-round fight. It’s hard to entirely count Freire out of most fights, including this one, as despite Rodriguez’s athletic advantages, he should leave himself open for a lot of counters. However, the read is that while it might be a close fight, Freire will generally run out of time to completely solve the Rodriguez puzzle. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.

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Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Pimblett vs. Chandler
Silva vs. Mitchell
Rodriguez vs. Freire
Krylov vs. Reyes
The Prelims