Preview: UFC 219 ‘Cyborg vs. Holm’

Welterweight

Carlos Condit (30-10) vs. Neil Magny (19-6)

ODDS: Condit (-165), Magny (+145)

ANALYSIS: It has been two years and four months since Condit walked into his UFC on Fox 21 headliner with Demian Maia and got positively dummied in two minutes. Since the loss, Condit has weighed hanging up his gloves while never quite explicitly saying he was retired, focusing his efforts on side projects like opening a nitro cold brew coffee business. “The Natural Born Killer” is still just 33 years old, but he has always been an offensive dynamo. On the other hand, he has been that offensive dynamo for over 15 years and across 40 pro MMA fights, never mind his kickboxing career and never mind how brutal so many of those fights have been.

There is just no telling what we are going to get in the cage from Condit, and it certainly does not help that Magny over his UFC tenure has developed a penchant for being a spoiler. In his previous 17 Octagon appearances, Magny has prevailed seven times as a betting underdog.

If we had more precise knowledge about Condit’s physical and competitive condition, forecasting this bout would be infinitely easier. If we knew with some assurance that the savage that shed blood in the 2016 “Fight of the Year” with Robbie Lawler was showing up, this would be a no-brainer. In their best vintages, Magny is not a difficult style clash for Condit. Magny has a five-inch reach advantage and can box ably from both stances, but Condit is an infinitely better striker who predicates so much of his high-volume, eight-point striking bursts on brilliant stance-switching while rushing opponents. Magny is historically easier fodder for leg kicking offense, and he does not have the sort of top game to do what Georges St. Pierre or Maia did to Condit; because of that, he has less of a chance to make Condit pay for his aggressive kicking offense by threatening with his top game. If Magny trips, stumbles or even takes down Condit clean, Magny is not a control freak on top and likely will not hold down Condit.

Despite some notable and entertaining first-round stoppages over his career, Condit tends to fall into the category of a slower starter, at least in the sense that he always tends to absorb some offense from his opponent before he begins putting together longer, flowing combinations of punches and kicks from distance and then knees and elbows inside. He is aided here in that Magny, perhaps perfect for his underdog persona, tends to get completely blown out early in contests before making comebacks, most vividly reflected in his complete car crash of a comeback TKO over Hector Lombard.

If the wear and tear over Condit’s distinguished career is to manifest here, it will not be as a result of a southpaw Magny pumping his jab and boxing him up. Based on his passing-oriented grappling style, even if Magny gets top position, Condit is liable to get up or produce submission attempts from his back. The danger here is a long-hittable Condit having lost his durability over his two-plus-years away, eating one big shot and getting pounded out or tapped in a scramble, something we have seen happen to so many outstanding fighters who have succumbed to time and trauma. There is an added element of drama given that Condit is not just any 15-year veteran; “The Natural Born Killer” was and remains synonymous with blood and guts.

Condit may look uncharacteristically inactive as he knocks off the rust, but even with the reach disadvantage, the Jackson-Wink MMA rep should identify the ease with which he can land kicking offence on Magny and his foe’s general defensive lapses. If Condit has somehow been reinvigorated or recharged with no appreciable falloff from almost three years ago, he stops Magny in the middle portion of the fight with a flurry of strikes. Even if he is faded in this case, he should be able to exploit Magny’s defensive deficiencies and chop away a range-based decision on the rangier man.

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