Preview: UFC 183 ‘Silva vs. Diaz’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Thales Leites (24-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. Tim Boetsch (18-7, 9-6 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former middleweight title challenger Leites has strung together a nice 4-0 record in his second stint with the promotion, most recently knocking out Francis Carmont and Trevor Smith. Boetsch looked to be on the doorstep of a pink slip but got back on track with a devastating finish of Brad Tavares in front of his hometown crowd in August. This has the potential to be a fun scrap between a pair of middleweights knocking on the door of the division’s top 10-15.

Leites was formerly a one-dimensional grappler but used his time away from the UFC to develop a functional if not picture-perfect striking game. Powerful punches highlighted by a clubbing right hand are the order of the day, and Leites possesses surprisingly good timing and a solid understanding of angles that allows him to land those shots. He also uses those looping punches to facilitate his clinch entries.

The core of Leites' approach remains getting the fight to close range, dragging his opponent to the ground and working his suffocating top control. On the mat, he passes effortlessly and can hit a variety of submissions but has a special affinity for the arm triangle. He does not work at a quick pace and is not a great athlete, but his game is rugged and hard to shut down.

Boetsch is rugged, durable and brutally strong. His base in Division I wrestling is still the core of his game, but he has a bad habit of shooting from too far outside and being forced to defend from the front headlock. He is much better in the clinch, where he maintains strong control and has an arsenal of knees, elbows, uppercuts and beautiful hip tosses. From top position, he drops absolute bombs and can stay heavy but struggles if forced to defend from the bottom. At range, nobody will confuse Boetsch with Conor McGregor, but he does have bricks for fists, a knack for landing the big punch and excellent timing.

BETTING ODDS: Leites (-400), Boetsch (+300)

THE PICK: That line seems way off to me. I could see having Leites as a 2-to-1 favorite, but the current odds imply that Boetsch only wins this fight once out of every four times. Leites is not a takedown machine, while Boetsch is a strong infighter and decent defensive wrestler; and the Brazilian’s newfound interest in chucking leather could get him in trouble against the durable American. Still, Leites has been on a fantastic run, and I think he is capable of grinding down Boetsch in the clinch and from top position. Leites by decision is the pick.

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