Preview: UFC 183 ‘Silva vs. Diaz’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Thiago Alves (20-9, 12-6 UFC) vs. Jordan Mein (29-9, 3-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Former top contender Alves returns from yet another substantial layoff and draws grizzled veteran Mein, who most recently pasted Mike Pyle. These two were originally scheduled to meet in August, but an injury to Alves postponed the fight and led to Mein’s quick drubbing of Pyle. This should be a fantastic action fight to open the pay-per-view card between two of the welterweight division’s most exciting strikers, with the winner on track for a top-15 opponent.

Alves has been the division’s forgotten man due to his many injuries and layoffs, but he is still one of its very best strikers. Despite his lack of height, he fights long, with a crisp, consistent jab and rangy kicks at all levels. He is known -- and rightfully so -- for his devastating low kicks. It is not so much that he kicks hard, although he does, but that his setups are diverse and perfectly executed.

Alves is one of the only fighters who use low kicks as counters in the pocket, and he is able to do so because he pulls his head off the centerline, Ernesto Hoost-style, as he throws. Alves is also fond of taking an angle on his left hook or jab and then coming low with the kick, and he capitalizes on these setups by coming up to the body or head once he has established the legs as a target. Alves remains a sound defensive wrestler, to boot, and can hit the occasional double-leg of his own when the mood strikes. He is more than competent on the ground, though we rarely see those skills in action.

Like Alves, Mein is a striker by trade, and a very skilled one. Although he throws the occasional cracking low kick, Mein is mostly a crisp boxer who gets clean, effortless weight transfer and power into his punches, feints beautifully and mixes up his shots to the head and body. The Canadian is also one of the few fighters to make good use of standing elbows. He excels at leaping in and out of range and using his command of angles and head movement to avoid his opponent’s strikes and dictate the pace. Mein is a solid if not outstanding defensive wrestler, and he is capable of working his own takedowns from time to time; his guard is mostly defensive and not terribly dangerous, but from top position, he postures well and his ground strikes pack vicious force.

BETTING ODDS: Mein (-110), Alves (-110)

THE PICK: This is an even-money fight at the bookmakers, and it should be. I lean Alves on the basis of his proven skill as a striker against some of the division’s best, while Mein has yet to show that he can hang with a competitor of the Brazilian’s caliber. Despite his many injuries, there is no reason to think Alves is shot or past his prime. I expect this to mostly end up as a striking match, though it would not be surprising if Alves ducked under Mein’s counters in the pocket for takedowns. The pick here is Alves by decision in a close thriller.

Last Fights » The Prelims