Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Magny vs. Gastelum’

Flyweights

Jussier da Silva (18-3) vs Henry Cejudo (9-0)

THE MATCHUP: Offensively, Cejudo is an outstanding striker, particularly when one considers that his MMA career began only two years ago. Cejudo is a superb combination striker, mixing punches and kicks with hard knees in the clinch. He likes to fight in open space, leading with a very stiff jab. He throws tremendous volume, showing excellent stamina despite a reputation for hard weight cuts. He is largely a head hunter, but a judicious application of body kicks combined with a fast pace makes him an attritive force nonetheless. Unsurprisingly, defense is Cejudo’s weakest point on the feet, as it is for almost every novice striker. Cejudo’s defense depends almost entirely on parries and blocks, and though he counters nicely off of these techniques, he is there to be hit.

Cejudo’s wrestling ability stands on its own, with an Olympic gold medal and numerous other championships to his credit. Interestingly enough, Cejudo has not been a particularly effective takedown artist in the UFC, but he excels at throwing kicks, punches and elbows on clinch breaks and as his opponent moves away to defend his takedowns. Defensively, Cejudo is flawless, having never been taken down in the UFC. As such, we do not really know what his submission grappling looks like.

Da Silva has made great strides as a striker since his devastating knockout loss to Joseph Benavidez in September 2013. This progression culminated in his most recent fight against Wilson Reis, as “Formiga” earned the first knockdown of his UFC career with a beautiful counter right hand. Da Silva is a counter puncher first and foremost, with a fairly nuanced defense to help set up his strikes. Though he will throw in combination, his hair-trigger straight right is the punch he throws most often.

Like Cejudo, da Silva’s grappling skills need little introduction, though his specialty lies in submission grappling rather than wrestling. “Formiga” has quite possibly the best back takes in the entire division, with six of his eight submissions coming by rear-naked choke. A Nova Uniao fighter, he is certainly not clueless when it comes to wrestling, though Reis was able to drag him to the ground several times in their encounter. His excellent butterfly guard and keen defense on the ground keep him safe whenever he is taken down, however, and he is no longer as willing to stay on his back as he was earlier in his career.

THE ODDS: Cejudo (-450), da Silva (+350)

THE PICK: This fight feels much closer than the odds indicate. Whether or not Cejudo will risk taking “Formiga” to the ground remains to be seen, but I think this fight plays out mostly on the feet. Cejudo has the momentum coming into this bout, but his inexperience as a striker and one-dimensional defense mean that “Formiga” will have many opportunities to land counterstrikes. Still, the Brazilian has often been too patient for his own good, waiting too long for the perfect counter. Cejudo’s volume and varied offense should be enough to negate da Silva’s precise timing. The pick is Cejudo by unanimous decision.

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