Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Magny vs. Gastelum’

Lightweights

Efrain Escudero (24-9) vs Leandro Silva (18-3-1)

THE MATCHUP: Silva is fast, explosive and powerful. Athletically speaking, he should be a great prospect, but he lacks any semblance of strategic process. This is why Silva, despite apparently powerful striking, has just one knockout in over 20 fights; he does not measure range and struggles to set up his kicks and punches, opting instead to lunge across open space with his chin up in the air, often getting taken down as he overcommits. As a result he throws very little volume, relying on disparate single strikes. This is even more surprising considering the fact that Silva claims to have started training muay Thai 10 years ago and currently trains with the Chute Boxe team.

Silva does have his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Rocian Gracie, and that is where his skills really show. “Buscape” is a little too content to fight off of his back, but an aggressive guard game helps to mitigate the risk of that tactic. He has earned the majority of his submissions, however, from top position. Silva is a crushing pressure fighter whenever he gets his opponent’s back to the mat, using cross-faces and head pressure to slice his way through guard and into mount; from there, he often takes the back and looks for the rear-naked choke. Unfortunately Silva does not have much in the way of technical wrestling to get himself into his preferred positions.

Escudero has had his share of ups and downs, including a particularly damning four-fight losing streak that saw him booted from the UFC in 2013, but since then, he has compiled a strong record of six wins in eight fights. Against Rodrigo Goiana de Lima, he showed off some of the improvements in his striking game, using an educated left hand to sneak in short crosses and uppercuts that had “Monstro” reeling around the Octagon. Escudero is also a strong clinch striker, with some nice elbows and knees in close. Like Silva, he has struggled to pull the trigger in the past but seems to have largely gotten over that issue -- with a few notable hiccups.

Escudero was outpointed by Leonardo Santos in his UFC return, a fight that seemed to highlight how he could be controlled by a stronger opponent. However, Santos is a much more technical wrestler than Silva; and technically speaking, Escudero has solid wrestling chops of his own. He is not impossible to take down, but he performs very well in scrambles, where he has a nose for submissions in the midst of quick transitions, particularly the guillotine and the rear-naked choke. Escudero can find himself in tough spots on the ground against bigger opponents, but his experience and aggressive submission game help to alleviate his flaws.

THE ODDS: Silva (-140), Escudero (+120)

THE PICK: Escudero would appear to be badly outmatched athletically, but his skill and experience give him an edge. While it is quite possible that Silva powers through him, Escudero’s wrestling credentials should allow him to control the whereabouts of the fight, and a more consistent, high-volume striking game will allow him to rack up points. Escudero has also never been knocked out. He wins by unanimous decision.

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