Preview: UFC 285 ‘Jones vs. Gane’

Welterweights

#9 WW | Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #7 WW | Geoff Neal (15-4, 7-2 UFC)

ODDS: Rakhmonov (-500), Neal (+400)

Rakhmonov is going to be a problem for the welterweight division. “Nomad” came up the ranks in his native Kazakhstan with a bullying approach that figured to require some adjustments with the transition to the UFC level. However, within short order, it became apparent that Rakhmonov was the type of powerful athlete who could just slide directly into the welterweight elite, as he took care of Alex Oliveira and Michel Prazeres in short order to kick off his Octagon campaign. Rakhmonov mixed things up a bit against Carlston Harris, flexing his striking and finishing with a spinning hook kick, at which point it was clear that he was ready for the test of Neil Magny, whose sturdy game has essentially been the litmus test for welterweight contender status. It figured to be a tough fight for Rakhmonov, whose tendency to hunt for the clinch seemed to play right into Magny’s strengths, but it instead turned into a complete domination for the rising prospect, who overpowered and outwrestled the Elevation Fight Team before clamping on a guillotine choke for the win at the end of the second round. Rakhmonov could get stalled out at some point by the grinders at the very top of the division, but it also would not be a shock if he simply managed to keep overachieving in his rise through the ranks.

Rakhmonov now draws Neal, and the five-year UFC vet seems as poised as ever to upset the apple cart of the Kazakh prospect. Neal kicked off 2019 with a breakout win over Belal Muhammad that has continued to age well, and knockout wins over Niko Price and Mike Perry to cap off the year put “Handz of Steel” in a strong position, having affirmed himself as a potential contender and a consistent must-see fighter in terms of excitement. However, Neal’s career essentially went sideways for the next two years—and understandably so. He suffered a life-threatening infection over the summer of 2020, which led to some flat performances in losses to Stephen Thompson and the aforementioned Magny. Neal seemed to recapture a bit of his old form against Santiago Ponzinibbio but finally brought some of his old electricity in an August win over Vicente Luque. The aggressive style of “The Silent Assassin” played right into Neal’s sharp hand speed, which in turn led to a dominant win and shocking knockout. There is the sense that Neal is still a bit of a solvable test if his opponent simply refuses to engage on his terms—even at his best, Neal has mostly hunted for those knockouts—but he is still almost always dangerous, particularly for a fighter like Rakhmonov, whose best performances rely on him wading into close distance. There is a solid chance that Neal can absolutely nuke Rakhmonov if there is any bit of overconfidence or defensive slippage from the latter. However, the bet is that Rakhmonov can successfully make this a bit of a grind before finding a finish. The pick is Rakhmonov via second-round submission.

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Jones vs. Gane
Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Rakhmonov vs. Neal
Gamrot vs. Turner
Nickal vs. Pickett
The Prelims