Preview: UFC 285 ‘Jones vs. Gane’

After a rough stretch of UFC Fight Night cards to cap February, the Ultimate Fighting Championship gets back to business with UFC 285 this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The best-laid plans can always go haywire, but it appears the day has finally arrived, as Jon Jones will make his long-awaited move to heavyweight; and while Ciryl Gane was not the name on the tip of everyone’s tongue for the former pound-for-pound king’s first heavyweight opponent, this main event still serves as a fascinating encounter. Beyond that sits an intriguing co-headliner, as Valentina Shevchenko suddenly seems vulnerable heading into her women’s flyweight title defense against Alexa Grasso. The rest of the main draw is excellent, too. Geoff Neal faces Shavkat Rakhmonov and Mateusz Gamrot takes on Jalin Turner in compelling matchups that showcase some potential contenders, and the promotional debut of Bo Nickal should at least be entertaining to watch.

UFC Heavyweight Championship

#10 P4P | Jon Jones (26-1, 20-1 UFC) vs. #1 HW | Ciryl Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC)

ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)

It is hard to believe it is actually here, but Jones finally seems poised to move up to heavyweight and attempt to add to his case as an all-time great. It has now been 14 and a half years since Jones first entered the Octagon shortly after his 21st birthday, and looking back, the most shocking thing might be that it took “Bones” a full two and a half years to claim light heavyweight gold. A dynamic athlete seemingly capable of anything, Jones ran through all available competition—controversial disqualification loss to Matt Hamill aside—and became the UFC's youngest-ever champion in March 2011. Jones’ reign was marked by tons of drama outside of the cage while very little drama actually occurred inside of it. The best challengers available had little to offer Jones as opponents, as the only person capable of defeating the Rochester, New York, native seemed to be himself. Initially that manifested in some flat performances caused by Jones’ seeming unwillingness to take training seriously, but the situation eventually went off the rails in 2015 amid a cascade of issues that, frankly, is a bit difficult to keep track of at this point. A 2015 title defense against Anthony Johnson was scrapped after Jones was arrested as part of a hit-and-run incident. A 2016 shot at reclaiming his belt from Daniel Cormier was scrapped thanks to a failed drug test from Jones, reportedly due to tainted “gas station dick pills.” Jones then seemingly defeated Cormier for the title in 2017, only to have that decision reversed due to another failed drug test. While nothing screwy happened with Jones’ 2018 win over Alexander Gustafsson itself, issues with his drug testing led to the UFC moving the entire card from Nevada to California on about a week’s notice. From there, things were actually normal enough to have most of the focus take place on the goings on inside of the cage, at which point it seemed like Jones might be having a late-career slide. He beat Anthony Smith handily enough, but title defenses over Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes were each controversial decisions in which Jones did not look particularly dynamic, banking on either some slow-paced range striking or ugly clinch work. After the Reyes loss, Jones seemed primed to be threatened by his future light heavyweight contenders, but his career has been on pause for the last three years, marked by a combination of legal issues and a continued tease of a move to heavyweight. That eventually figured to coalesce into a massive fight against Francis Ngannou, which has seemingly been fumbled away via the UFC’s unsuccessful contract negotiations with Frenchman. Instead, Jones’ return comes against Gane for a vacant heavyweight belt in a matchup that still brings a fair amount of intrigue.

Gane was not nearly the bolt of lightning Jones was upon hitting the UFC, but the Frenchman had a similarly quick rise through the promotional ranks to kick off his UFC career. “Bon Gamin” was signed just three fights deep into his pro career, but it did not feel like he was being rushed. In that time, he had already proven everything he needed to prove at the regional level, leaning on his kickboxing background and showing an impressive amount of fluidity for a man his size. That kept up with his 2019 UFC debut—a victory over Raphael Pessoa which saw Gane close the show with a first-round submission—and led to two more dominant wins over Don'Tale Mayes and Tanner Boser before the end of the year. Unfortunately, some major health issues kept Gane out of action for nearly a year, but upon his return, it was the same story of impressive results and a busy schedule. He racked up wins over Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis in less than eight months, earning an interim title while never really getting tested along the way. That led to a unification fight against Ngannou to kick off 2022, which was a strange bit of disappointing business that also did not do much to dull Gane’s potential for success moving forward. He seemed to be doing well early on in an uneventful fight, but Ngannou took over with the surprising move of pivoting to his wrestling, grinding out a win while also exposing Gane’s poor decision making on the mat. Fortunately for Gane, that flaw was not much of a concern in his last victory against Tai Tuivasa—a fun fight that saw him storm back for a win after the Aussie landed some powerful offense. With that said, it does linger a bit more for this fight against Jones.

On one hand, this could be considered an advantageous first fight for Jones up in his new weight class. Increasingly, his game has depended on either staying at a distance and poking away from range or grinding away in the clinch, forcing Jones to wade through that middle distance to mix it up against his opponents. That would be more of a concern for someone less historically durable than Jones, but that was also part of the intrigue over the years as everyone considered his move up to heavyweight. Could Jones’ chin, as strong as it is, hold up to unadulterated heavyweight power? In a way, Jones is a bit lucky he will not have to address that issue yet. While Gane presents many challenges, he is on the lower end of potential one-hitter quitters Jones could have been matched against. Oddly, that means this may wind up as a fight with a bit of an inverted dynamic from what one would expect, with Gane as the faster fighter looking to leverage a speed advantage against what could be a lumbering version of Jones, who was becoming a slower fighter at 205 pounds and has packed on a ton of muscle in the last three years. Jones’ wrestling could be a factor, even as that has become less a part of his game in the last few years. His takedown attempts against Santos and Reyes looked much less effective than in the past, likely owing to the wear and tear Jones has put on his body over the years. Against most heavyweights, it would still likely remain a non-factor given the additional size involved, but Gane’s wrestling defense and instincts looked poor enough against Ngannou that Jones still could find some success in that phase. Jones could also make some hay in the clinch, but this feels like a fight Gane should be able to take as long as he adopts a consistent and smart approach. He has the type of size parity that has bothered Jones in the past and should be fast enough to outmaneuver the former light heavyweight champion. Add in the questions about where Jones is at physically—beyond his age, one has to wonder whether or not he has sacrificed too much speed or cardio in bulking up to heavyweight—and this might be his long-awaited first legitimate loss, even it probably will not be all that exciting a performance in practice. The pick is Gane via decision.

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Jones vs. Gane
Shevchenko vs. Grasso
Rakhmonov vs. Neal
Gamrot vs. Turner
Nickal vs. Pickett
The Prelims