Preview: UFC 281 ‘Adesanya vs. Pereira’

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Lightweights

#11 P4P | Dustin Poirier (28-7, 20-6 UFC) vs. #5 LW | Michael Chandler (23-7, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)

Chandler certainly has fit into the UFC’s lightweight ranks smoothly, as it feels like the former Bellator MMA champion has been a stalwart of the 155-pound picture for much longer than two years. After a decade with Bellator, the worry was that Chandler was hitting the UFC near the end of his peak, but he immediately allayed some of those worries with his promotional debut in early 2021, knocking out Dan Hooker in two and a half minutes flat. That was a harbinger of things to come as far as the violence that Chandler has brought to the Octagon, as things did not slow down much for his next fight. Matched with Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, the two packed 25 minutes of action and momentum swings into just the first round, with the Brazilian getting the knockout win almost immediately upon the start of the second frame. Chandler somehow managed to top that for his next fight; at last year’s November outing at Madison Square Garden, Chandler and Justin Gaethje combined to put on an all-time classic. Three rounds of absolute madness saw Gaethje get the nod in a fight where each man was able to survive until the final horn. Chandler’s bout against Tony Ferguson in May looked to be where things might slow down—he even had to rely on his wrestling early—but the fight suddenly came to an end when he essentially front kicked Ferguson’s head into the rafters, continuing his streak of brutality. There have been improvements around the margins as Chandler has shown a better ability to pace himself, but he is what he is at this point: a wrecking ball of muscle that can press some of the most dangerously explosive offense in the sport, or sometimes fall apart in the process of trying to do so. That is a gift in and of itself without considering any sort of greater success, but with Oliveira dropping the lightweight title to Islam Makhachev, things might suddenly be a bit more open for Chandler to get back to a title shot with another win, though the same is true of his opponent.

It has been a pleasure watching Poirier slowly put things together during his decade under the UFC banner. A 2014 knockout loss to Conor McGregor suggested a ceiling at featherweight for “The Diamond,” whose subsequent move up to 155 pounds paid immediate dividends, unlocking a level of volume and pace that turned Poirier into a much more potent fighter. A 2016 defeat to Michael Johnson in a main event that saw Poirier get sparked in just 95 seconds seemed to be the catalyst for the Louisiana native rounding into championship form. His tendency to embrace the brawl left some clear defensive openings, so Poirier began the process of reining himself in and becoming a much more measured fighter. It did not always go exactly as planned—Poirier even made light of his tendency to ignore his coaches’ advice after a 2017 win over Jim Miller—but things finally clicked with a 2018 win over Gaethje. The expectation was that Gaethje would eventually lure the American Top Team mainstay into a self-defeating brawl, but the situation never turned the corner, as Poirier put together consistent round after consistent round until he put the former World Series of Fight champion away in the fourth. Poirier has clearly been one of the best lightweights in the world since, only falling short in his attempts at undisputed championship gold. He was one of the many victims of Khabib Nurmagomedov, and a 2021 run spent mostly beating on McGregor eventually culminated in Poirier losing a title shot against Oliveira. Notably, those are the two strongest wrestlers that Poirier has faced as a lightweight, which suggests things may not go much different against Makhachev. Nevertheless, the opportunity is now actually open to find out. That also makes for an interesting dynamic in this fight. While it goes against all of the action potential this bout promises, there is the chance that Chandler can defuse a lot of things simply by embracing the grind and trying to control two rounds. As it is, this is likely a dangerous but winnable fight for Poirier. He has been able to outmaneuver straightforward opponents in the past, and Chandler’s game is much more about sheer horsepower than any sort of layered craft. Chandler could certainly find a finish or just come out on top on a shot-for-shot basis, but the pick is for Poirier to keep up the pace and win a fun decision.

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Adesanya vs. Pereira
Esparza vs. Zhang
Poirier vs. Chandler
Gutierrez vs. Edgar
Hooker vs. Puelles
The Prelims