Preview: UFC 278 ‘Usman vs. Edwards 2’

Bantamweights

#6 BW | Merab Dvalishvili (14-4, 7-2 UFC) vs. #3 BW | Jose Aldo (31-7, 13-6 UFC)

ODDS: Dvalishvili (-125), Aldo (+105)

It did not end particularly well for Dominick Cruz on Aug. 13, so it is up to Jose Aldo to take up the mantle for all-time greats trying to carve a path back to bantamweight title contention. Still possibly the greatest featherweight of all-time, Aldo was the type of champion who helped move the entire sport forward and had one of the best resumes in the game heading into his ill-fated 2015 title defense against Conor McGregor. Aldo regrouped and became champion once again after McGregor moved on from the division, but it did appear that the sport had finally caught up to the Brazilian great. Aldo recaptured some of his finishing form with knockouts of Jeremy Stephens and Renato Carneiro, but losses to Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski were one-sided enough to eventually lock Aldo out of the featherweight title picture. After the Volkanovski loss, Aldo announced his intention to move down to bantamweight, which seemed like a desperate measure. If anything, the assumption had been that Aldo—who had struggled at points with his cut to featherweight—would move up to lightweight in the back half of his career. Aldo looked aesthetically terrible in his 135-pound debut opposite Marlon Moraes but acquitted himself well in a split decision loss that wound up not mattering much anyway. Between the Aldo’s star power, the chaos of the pandemic and Henry Cejudo vacating the belt, the situation broke right for the Brazilian to fight for the vacant belt against Petr Yan. Aldo eventually faded in the championship rounds against Yan and was finished in the fifth, suggesting once again that his defensively focused style could no longer keep up with the faster pace of this newest generation of contenders. However, he has done an excellent job of convincing everyone otherwise in his three fights since. Aldo finally got his first win at bantamweight against Marlon Vera—a victory that continues to age excellently—by re-focusing on his wrestling and clearly separated himself as the better striker in a win over Pedro Munhoz. His most recent victory, a five-round win over Rob Font in December, was a masterful example of Aldo pacing himself, winning early rounds on huge moments of offense meted out perfectly before breaking out takedowns late. With this shockingly successful back end of his career, Aldo is putting together a resume that may affirm him as the greatest fighter of all-time. Up next: Dvalishvili, and with a win, possibly a title shot.

Dvalishvili seems to be figuring things out, but this is a huge test for the Georgian. “The Machine” earned his UFC contract in 2017 with a spinning backfist knockout of Raufeon Stots, which was both a perfect encapsulation of his mindset and some false advertising. Dvalishvili has historically been about all-out aggression, though he has traditionally found almost all of his success as a relentless wrestler. In fact, Dvalishvili’s inability to get much done besides his wrestling got him off to a shockingly shaky start in the UFC. He completed 11 takedowns against Frankie Saenz but lost due to his inability to bank damage and then memorably got choked out at the final horn against Ricky Simon, kicking off his UFC career with two straight losses. He has turned it around since, as Dvalishvili developed effective enough striking to win rounds while also putting his opponents through the ringer, seemingly threatening double-digit takedowns in all of his fights. In Dvalishvili’s two 2021 assignments against Cody Stamann and Marlon Moraes, he showed some legitimate progress in terms of balancing his approach, mixing things up while not selling out completely on his wrestling. That did lead to his fight with Moraes being a tale of two bouts; Moraes was surprisingly able to catch Dvalishvili off-guard and almost score a finish early, only for the Georgian to storm back for an absolutely brutal extended beating and a finish of his own. Given that this is a three-round fight, the success that Moraes was able to find does suggest that Aldo can pull this one off, once again on the back of landing huge moments of offense and exploiting the openings in Dvalishvili’s still-developing defense. There are some moments where, at bantamweight, Aldo’s takedown defense is not quite as impenetrable as it was during his peak at 145 pounds, so there is a chance that Dvalishvili can find enough takedown success to blow this fight completely open. However, the bet is that the all-time great can keep this standing enough to land the hardest shots of the fight and ride out another tough win. The pick is Aldo via decision.

Jump To »
Usman vs. Edwards
Costa vs. Rockhold
Dvalishvili vs. Aldo
Romanov vs. Tybura
Pedro vs. Hunsucker
The Prelims