Preview: UFC 217 ‘Bisping vs. St. Pierre’

UFC Women's Strawweight Championship

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-0) vs. Rose Namajunas (6-3)

ODDS: Jedrzejczyk (-750), Namajunas (+525)

ANALYSIS: When the UFC crowned its inaugural women’s strawweight champion at the conclusion of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 20 nearly three years ago, Namajunas actually entered her title bout with Carla Esparza as the favorite, despite full knowledge that she was just scratching the surface of her potential. “Thug Rose” is still just 25 years old and still maturing. For her second UFC title challenge, however, she is a massive underdog. This is how Jedrzejczyk has changed the game in less than three years.

Now 8-0 in the UFC and with five successful title defenses to her credit, Jedrzejczyk is unquestionably the sport’s top woman. It is not just the violent dominance of her challengers that has earned her the mantle; it is the fact that she has taken out some of the very best women in the sport: Jessica Andrade, Claudia Gadelha (twice) and Polish cohort Karolina Kowalkiewicz the last time the UFC came to Madison Square Garden. She continues to make huge strides in her defensive grappling at American Top Team, buttressing her high-volume, eight-point striking attack. Gadelha arguably won their first encounter and took the opening 10 minutes of their title bout, but the Brazilian ultimately wilted under the relentless pressure “Joanna Champion” presents.

Because of Jedrzejczyk’s technical and overwhelming standup, the conventional wisdom is that if and when she is dethroned, it will be as a result of someone out-grappling her. Gadelha’s size and strength put her in a great position to exploit this perceived weakness in their rematch, but she simply could not keep up her grappling in the face of the Pole’s indefatigable punching, kicking, elbowing and kneeing. At UFC 211 in May, Andrade, perhaps the most frightening physical specimen in the weight class, got absolutely nowhere with her rough and tumble game. So what is the antidote?

At this juncture, it seems the most likely recipe for upsetting Jedrzejczyk is found in a wild scramble. The women who have sought to simply get takedowns, play position and stick the champ to the mat have failed, and Jedrzejczyk continues to hone her game to avoid these situations completely. Fortunately, if there is any silver lining for Namajunas in this bout, it is that she thrives in scrambles, both creating them and in taking dominant positions out of them. All of her best wins, save for her decision over Tecia Torres, have come when she used her quick, explosive tendencies to dive into top position, full mount or back control. Namajunas is a capable and generally well-rounded striker, but diving into full or back mount is what makes her come alive, instantly turning her into a nasty ground-and-pound machine while she fishes for submissions at a frenetic rate.

There is a major fly in the ointment, though: It is incredibly difficult to create scrambles against a fighter as good as Jedrzejczyk, and Namajunas’ notable deficiencies play into the champion’s hands. Against Kowalkiewicz, Namajunas easily won the first round with clean counter-boxing; however, as soon as her foe started clinching, dirty boxing in combination and disrupting Namajunas’ punching rhythm, she was flummoxed and struggled to even get her jab back in play. In her title defense against Kowalkiewicz, Jedrzejczyk mauled her inside and on the breaks, easily wrecking a clinch-oriented fighter at her strength. It would behoove “Thug Rose” to get a little crazy, be unpredictable and hope to set up some “broken play” on which she can capitalize, but it is an infinitesimal window. “Joanna Champion” figures to retain her crown once more with her usual 25-minute assault, winning four or five rounds handily and perhaps setting some FightMetric records, too.

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