Preview: UFC 217 ‘Bisping vs. St. Pierre’
Masvidal vs. Thompson
Welterweight
Jorge Masvidal (32-12) vs. Stephen Thompson (13-2-1)ODDS: Thompson (-185), Masvidal (+160)
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Despite over 14 years of pro MMA experience, Masvidal has only recently become a particular favorite for hardcore MMA fans. The American Top Team product is one of the slickest, most stylish strikers in the entire promotion, capable of dodging an opponent’s attack before letting off a combination that uses all eight limbs, ripping said foe to the head, body and legs all at once. He seldom uses it, but he is a sneaky-good grappler who was ahead of the curve when it came to the value of being able to hit his targets, hurt them and then use the front headlock series to find chokes. His style is technical and vicious, and when Masvidal is at his best, it looks effortless, not unlike his trash-talking game, which has found a wider audience in the social media era of MMA. He is an easy anti-hero archetype. When you realize he is 4-4 in his last eight appearances but could easily be 8-0 if not for the judges, it only strengthens his cause.
With that said, Masvidal’s circumstance is not as simple as him being repeatedly wronged on the scorecards. Despite his multifaceted skill set, Masvidal remains a poor in-cage strategist, often abandoning techniques with which he is having success and seldom switching up his game when opponents start to figure him out. Few fighters take commanding and obvious rounds against him, yet in these close rounds, “Gamebred” seems perpetually content to slowly stalk forward, hoping for his foe to open up so he can counter while forgetting about his feints, jabs or kicks. He is strong defensively but gets frustrated in periods of inactivity, leading to his eating clean shots and then deciding to go blow-for-blow with his opposition. This is how you end up with unevenness of his performances, despite working the same game plan for Donald Cerrone as he did for Lorenz Larkin.
The ball is in Masvidal’s court here. If he can consistently negotiate Thompson’s jab and distance kicking and explode with fury inside -- the way Woodley found success and the route Matt Brown took to batter him early in his career -- this is a fight in which he can shine. However, he will need to actively attack and not simply seek to counter Thompson, who will likely be in the same conservative, range-based mold we saw against Rory MacDonald and in both Woodley fights. “Wonderboy” is going to establish a comfortable distance where he feels he can jab and kick without being hit and force Masvidal to do something about it. “Gamebred” cannot wait for Thompson to make a mistake; he has to make it happen.
Masvidal is the more well-rounded fighter and has more ways to end the fight, as he is a legitimate threat to clock Thompson in the face or hurt him and tap him in a scramble. However, his strategic mismanagement is an ongoing, brutal Achilles’ heel that has brought him down in so many pivotal contests. It is one of the least appealing outcomes, but the most likely scenario sees a tepid decision win for Thompson, which, given Masvidal’s history, will almost certainly be hotly debated.
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