Preview: UFC on Fox 15

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Ronaldo Souza (21-3, 4-0 UFC) vs. Chris Camozzi (20-9, 6-6 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Following a last-minute injury to Yoel Romero, Camozzi returns to the UFC on short notice to get another crack at “Jacare,” who choked him completely unconscious in less than four minutes in Souza’s Octagon debut. Camozzi went on a brutal four-fight losing streak to end his time in the UFC, though the last three were all close; he won a single fight during his time away. Souza is riding a seven-fight winning streak and is undefeated since coming to the world’s top promotion, with a title shot likely in the offing if he wins here.

Souza falls neatly into the archetype of the pressure fighter. He prefers to move forward, slipping his head off the centerline as he stalks his opponent toward the fence and slings hard left hooks, right overhands and the occasional right kick or spinning back kick to cut off escape angles. Once he has his opponent’s back close to the fence, Souza really goes to work, winging vicious punches and diving into the clinch or onto his opponent’s hips for a takedown. While his shot takedowns are fairly underwhelming, especially in space, Souza excels in the clinch. His head pressure and control are unspeakably strong; his knees and short uppercuts are brutal; and he mixes in slick inside and outside trips along with foot sweeps when his opponent begins to wear down. On the mat, Souza has one of the two or three best top games in the history of the sport, with unrelenting downward force, powerful ground strikes, exceptionally smooth passes and a diverse repertoire of topside submissions. All of this technical acumen is made even better by Souza’s incredible physicality, explosiveness, strength and punching power.

Camozzi is a big, rangy southpaw with a good kickboxing repertoire and decent skills everywhere else. He is not an imposing athlete and is just a shade north of pillow-fisted, but he makes up for it with solid technique and an outstanding work rate. A solid jab and stinging left kick at all levels are Camozzi’s bread and butter, and he likes to move in and out behind those two strikes. He is surprisingly strong in the clinch, with slashing elbows and sharp knees to go along with good trips, but more physical opponents can overpower him without too much trouble. On the mat, he passes nicely, throws decent ground strikes and can find the occasional submission, but his average takedown defense means that he spends a lot of time on his back, where he has little to offer.

BETTING ODDS: Souza (-1375), Camozzi (+900)

THE PICK: The first meeting between Souza and Camozzi was not competitive, and I see no reason to think the second will be any different. Camozzi might hit Souza a few times at range and keep him at bay for a while, but eventually, “Jacare” will punch his way into the clinch, take him down and submit him or knock him out from the top. The pick is Souza by submission in the second round.

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