Preview: UFC on Fox 15

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Cub Swanson (21-6, 6-2 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (12-3, 8-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two of the featherweight division’s best strikers meet in an exciting clash. Swanson put together a six-fight winning streak, with victories over the likes of Dustin Poirier, Dennis Siver and Jeremy Stephens, before getting run over by Frankie Edgar in his last outing. Holloway, a native of Hawaii, is on a five-fight run of his own since losing to Conor McGregor, with the most recent victory coming over the venerable Cole Miller. The winner will have a claim on a top-5 opponent and potentially a title shot in the not-too-distant future.

Holloway is a diverse and dangerous striker without strong preferences in terms of direction of movement or distance. He fights equally well from both orthodox and southpaw and takes full advantage of the many different ranges and angles this flexibility offers him. He will often switch stances mid-combination to capitalize when his opponent steps back or angles off, which allows him to add an additional few strikes without having to reset. Everything Holloway throws is clean and efficient, and he will string together combinations of up to six or seven strikes in a sitting, as he works head and body together. Spinning kicks and backfists add another dimension to his striking repertoire. Although he gets hit a fair bit, that is more a product of the blistering pace at which Holloway works than any fundamental defensive flaws, as he moves his head well and parries or blocks most of what is thrown at him. The Hawaiian has some of the best takedown defense in the division and has recently added a nice double-leg of his own and a dangerous guillotine in transition.

Like Holloway, Swanson is a striker by preference. The Californian moves with incredible grace and fluidity, leaping in and out of range with an offbeat rhythm and constant switching of stances that is very difficult to time and counter. His arsenal is diverse, with a preference for left round kicks from the southpaw stance and crisp boxing from orthodox. Powerful head-body punching combinations are Swanson’s bread and butter, and he executes them with great speed and clean weight transfer as he moves forward. Step-back counterpunches and Swanson’s tendency of finishing his combinations with a long jab or front kick make it difficult to pressure him. He is very difficult to hit squarely, and his constant movement makes it difficult for wrestling-minded opponents to get a clean shot at his hips, though Swanson has struggled to stuff skilled chain wrestlers. He has nice takedowns of his own in the clinch, and from top position, he passes well and maintains solid control. On his back, he is talented but erratic and can be held down by capable grinders.

BETTING ODDS: Swanson -145, Holloway +125

THE PICK: This should be an absolute barnburner. Both fighters like to work on the feet, and neither seems likely to shoot for more than a change-of-pace-takedown. The basic dynamic of the fight is whether Swanson’s movement is good enough to keep Holloway on the outside and prevent the Hawaiian from swarming him with volume and pressure. Both fighters are quite durable, so a finish seems unlikely. In a fight that goes the distance, I like Holloway to impose his pace, put combinations on Swanson and win rounds. The pick is Holloway by decision.

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