Preview: UFC on ESPN 48 ‘Strickland vs. Magomedov’

Lightweights

#12 LW | Damir Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. #15 LW | Grant Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC)

ODDS: Ismagulov (-115), Dawson (-105)

This is an important spot Dawson, who earns a big shot that feels like it has been years in the making. Dawson came to the UFC as a single-minded fighter, which worked surprisingly well. “KGD” looked to immediately get to work with an aggressive wrestling game and hang onto his opponents by any means necessary, taking any submission opportunities that came along the way. It all worked great when Dawson could find a finish, but a lot of his victories followed a worrying trend. If his fights went to a decision, Dawson ended them absolutely exhausted, typically being forced to survive a late comeback and hang on for the win in the process. That figured to hit a wall at some point, particularly when Dawson scraped by with a draw against Ricky Glenn in 2021, but a funny thing happened in 2022. Just as he started facing another level of competition, Dawson finally evolved. His wrestling is still obviously the standout skill, but Dawson now brings a functional striking game to the table that at least allows him to pick his spots and conserve his gas tank, all while remaining a terror when he gets his hands on his opponents. An eventual mauling of former Olympic wrestler Mark O. Madsen was an impressive bit of business that seemed to set up Dawson for bigger things. That comes here against Russia’s Damir Ismagulov.

Since making his UFC debut in 2018, Ismagulov has been the dark horse of the promotion’s deep lightweight division. Ismagulov might have the highest ratio of effectiveness to excitement in the UFC. He is not a standout athlete and does not have much finishing ability, but he is rock solid technically, fighting behind some strong boxing—with a particularly effective jab—and the typical level of impressive wrestling expected from his part of the globe. That has resulted in a lot of patient but dominant wins against a solid level of competition, with Ismagulov only finally meeting his match in December against Arman Tsarukyan. He was Ismagulov’s first opponent with championship-level upside. Tsarukyan’s success with his wrestling—though it did take over 20 takedown attempts for Tsarukyan to maintain control of their fight—does raise the hope for Dawson that he can grind his way to a win, as does the odd circumstances circling Ismagulov’s career at the moment. He teased a medical retirement shortly after the Tsarukyan loss, only to walk that back and apparently fight out his contract here. Dawson has a decent chance at a win, which was unthinkable about two years ago. Assuming Ismagulov shows up in something close to his typical form, he should be able to frustrate Dawson greatly on the feet and at least neutralize his wrestling enough to potentially tire the American out. The pick is Ismagulov via decision.

Jump To »
Strickland vs. Magomedov
Ismagulov vs. Dawson
Morales vs. Griffin
Gatto vs. Lipski
Bonfim vs. St. Denis
Ferreira vs. Ruziboev
The Prelims