UFC on ESPN 48 Beforemath: Can Abus Magomedov Stay on the Fast Track?

What do you do when you have an opponent whose one fight in the Ultimate Fighting Championship lasted 19 seconds? That is exactly what middleweight contender Sean Strickland is attempting to do this weekend when he takes on Abusupiyan Magomedov at “UFC Vegas 76.” Reminiscent of the UFC matching Alex Pereira with Strickland, it seems as if the promotion’s brass is looking for new divisional talent to challenge Israel Adesanya.

In today’s edition of Beforemath, we’re looking at this fight and Strickland specifically. As limited as Strickland is, how does he beat an opponent when tape study is a bit sparse? Or will Magomedov have a meteoric rise to the top 10 of the division after two fights with the promotion?

Strickland: Know Your Tools, Use Them Wisely

Getting Strickland (26-5, 10 KO, 4 subs) to change how he fights would be like getting him to say “please” and “thank you.” It just ain’t happening. Instead, Strickland’s game planning needs to be based around how he can use the tools he’s going to use and implement them against an opponent who is a wild and crazy fighter. Turns out, with Strickland being so jab-happy, that’s not as far-fetched as one would think.

Long time readers of Beforemath will know how fond I am of the jab. It’s a simple, low-cost and low-effort punch that can pile up points while punishing an opponent for overpursuing. For an opponent like Magomedov who comes forward, throws knees and likes to punch heavy, jabbing will get the job done. Unfortunately for Strickland, he won’t be the faster fighter from the start of things. That’s why going to the body is so important for Strickland. He has to take the wind out of Magomedov’s sails before he gets caught clean a few times. And numbers show that Strickland can, and often does, go to the body. Against Imavov he landed 38 to the body. He was 24 of 32 against Cannonier and 24 of 40 against Hermansson. He just has to actually commit to the idea and really pound the body early.

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Doubling up on the jab, as seen in the above animation, will do Strickland well. Getting Magomedov to flinch on the first and lean back will provide an option for Strickland to come behind with a second one and even a cross. Magomedov will come forward. That’s what he’s always done. Strickland will have to stay off of the fence and circle out from Magomedov’s forward pursuit.

The fight with Magomedov will be similar to the Jack Hermansson fight for Strickland, but with higher consequences. In that fight, we saw a Strickland that circled out and fired at will on created angles. To do this, Strickland knew that Hermansson would come forward every time they engaged. At the point we are looking at in the fight below, Hermansson is desperate and looking for a Hail Mary fifth round finish.

(1) Strickland steps in on the jab prompting an exchange from Hermansson out of his eagerness in the pocket. As he fires the jab, (2) Strickland pivots his rear leg out to his left and around to create an angle. (3) Now that Strickland is shifted, Hermansson isn’t facing Strickland and Strickland (4) fires another jab in and lands. I would like to see him build off this and throw a cross but that may be too much to ask for with a fighter as stubborn as Strickland. Strickland will get backed to the fence. With his style, it’s going to happen. Strickland comes forward and he backs up.

In his close fight with Jared Cannonier, Strickland (1) was pushed backwards. Notice how Strickland’s stance is a bit wider than normal here. As Cannonier comes forward and (2) throws the jab, Strickland shifts his weight to his back foot. (3) Throwing the teep makes Cannonier pause for a beat and concede a little bit of ground backwards, just what Strickland wants. As Cannonier backs up, (4) Strickland exits to his left and throws a jab to cover himself on the way out.

Now this is all fine, but throwing a lazy jab like that and advancing to the power side of Cannonier could have ended in disaster. An overhand right over the top would have put Strickland out. He needs to make sure to get out to the jabbing side instead to avoid any tomfoolery from Magomedov this fight.

I know I mentioned earlier that we’re not going to try to change Strickland. But I would like to see some sort of improvement. And it is building off of some stuff we’ve seen in the past from Strickland. Enter: Ilia Topuria. Coming off the biggest win of his career, Topuria put on a clinic last week against Josh Emmett. The specific moment I want to observe is how Topuria gets behind his shoulder to deflect oncoming punches, something Strickland can easily implement.

With Emmett throwing big rights all night, Topuria (1) kept his lead elbow low and his right hand high. Protecting his chin was his lead shoulder, a shoulder roll if you will. When Emmett throws the right, Topuria (2) gets his chin behind his lead shoulder and rolls his body with the punch (rolling with the punches, anyone?). Strickland has done just this in the past, which you can see against Hermansson specifically.

All in all, Strickland is going to Strickland. We can’t expect too much to change for him. All we can hope for is for Magomedov to bring a good fight out of him.

Magomedov: Another Alex Pereira

As mentioned before, the UFC is desperate for fresh blood at 185 pounds. With the fast tracking of Pereira to the title, they got the drama they needed. It seems as if Magomedov (25-4-1, 14 KOs, 6 subs) is getting that same treatment. A wild fighter who punches straight, wrestles pretty well and loves a good push kick, Magomedov is a fan’s fighter. In his debut, Magomedov knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus in only 19 seconds.

Beating Strickland isn’t as easy as feinting the body shot and coming up with a left hook just as Pereira did to earn his title shot. If that were the case, Cannonier and Imavov would have done that. It will take a bit more skill for Magomedov to put Strickland away. To deal with the jab, we are going to look at Teofimo Lopez and his win over Josh Taylor a few weeks ago. Magomedov will have to contend with a jab merchant in Strickland—which can be done with a little patience, something Magomedov will need to show this fight.

Lopez and Taylor was a southpaw versus orthodox matchup and this fight is a bladed fight, but Strickland stands so upright a lot of the time that this will probably still apply. (1) Lopez knows Taylor is looking at the power hand and he keeps his lead left hand low, out of Taylor’s field of view. When Lopez goes to throw, he will have the advantage of punching first on top of being the faster fighter. When Taylor (2) jabs, Lopez will slip to the outside and pivot his left leg around all while sneaking that left up and underneath the outstretched jab of Taylor. With Taylor jabbing and his arm in the way, Lopez pivoting hides the punch even more. To top things off, Taylor (3) pivots away from the power hand and has an angle to strike from if he chooses to do so.

From this position, one that Abus Magomedov will be presented with often, the Russian-born fighter can find the roundhouse to the body, a cross over the top or a multitude of other ways to punish Strickland. Magomedov throwing so heavy will inevitably get Strickland against the fence. Knowing what Strickland can do to exit these situations is important and knowing how to punish those mistakes is as well.

When Cannonier found himself pushing Strickland to the fence, he saw that Strickland wanted to escape (the graphic from above). To deal with this the next time, Cannonier wanted to bait Strickland. (1) Pushed to the fence again, Cannonier knew Strickland was going to his right to escape. To bait this, Cannonier (2) feint-dips to his left as if to throw a left hook. Strickland wants nothing to do with that and begins to exit to his left. This activated Cannonier’s trap card and (3) allowed Cannonier to smash the legs of Strickland as Strickland was heading that way.

Kicking the legs of Strickland is basically free. He doesn’t do anything about it and fighters get away with it with high rates of success. Imavov was 15 of 16, Cannonier was 24 of 35, and Hermansson was 51 of 54. Kick Strickland’s legs. He doesn’t know what to do with it.

A win over Strickland isn’t going to reap the same rewards for Abus Magomedov as it did for Pereira. With fighters like Whittaker, Vettori and Cannonier above him, cracking a contender spot will be tough. But it all starts this weekend with Strickland, one fight at a time.