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Middleweights

Johny Hendricks (17-6) vs. Hector Lombard (34-6-1)

THE MATCHUP: One gets the feeling that Hendricks may never be able to recapture the fire that made him champion and enabled him to arguably defeat the greatest mixed martial artist of all-time, Georges St. Pierre. Since winning the title, Hendricks’ record is a disappointing 1-4, and since 2016, he has failed to win a single fight. Granted, Hendricks has faced stiff competition all the way. Stephen Thompson sniffed the belt after handing Hendricks his first and only knockout loss, and Kelvin Gastelum and Neil Magny are both underrated. Many also believed that Hendricks deserved the win over Magny.

Then again, perhaps Hendricks’ titanic run through the welterweight ranks was the result of a perfect combination of championship drive and good timing. Even when Hendricks was being hailed as the most powerful puncher -- and the most decorated wrestler -- in the division, he battled his way to two split decisions, and his fight with Carlos Condit could have ended very differently had it been scheduled for five rounds. Hendricks may be less dangerous than he once was, but even in his heyday, he frequently found himself in difficult fights. He either knocked out his opponent or battled tooth and nail.

All of this is doubly unfortunate considering the great technical improvements Hendricks started to make around the time of his first title fight. He eschewed his lunging, one-handed style for a more balanced approach, mixing stinging jabs and thudding low kicks into his arsenal. He still struggled to outwrestle elite opponents in the traditional sense -- a fact that likely had something to do with his switch from an orthodox wrestling stance to that of a southpaw puncher -- but his clinch game was something to be feared. No one else ever threw St. Pierre around in the clinch the way Hendricks did.

Fortunately, “Bigg Rigg” is not being thrown to the wolves in his first middleweight fight. Lombard is still dangerous, but he suffers from many of the problems that have increasingly plagued Hendricks. Lombard had never been knocked out prior to 2016, but he was stopped in both of his fights that year. Magny stunned him and then pounded him into submission; and Dan Henderson shut off his lights completely. Lombard has also struggled to make his power striking work in the UFC. He lost a disappointing decision to Tim Boetsch in his promotional debut, largely due to his inability or unwillingness to pull the trigger. Lombard is a fighter who has always relied on natural athleticism, and it should come as no surprise that those abilities have faded with time. He turned 39 earlier this month.

Lombard is still a tough test for a fighter who tends to need a knockout to win convincingly. In particular, his grappling poses a challenge for Hendricks. Lombard has only been taken down by Magny and Yushin Okami in the UFC. He effortlessly thwarted the takedowns of men like Boetsch and Jake Shields. FightMetric ranks his takedown defense at 81 percent and his takedown accuracy at 57 percent. Hendricks’ defense, in contrast, is just 60 percent and his accuracy 48 percent. Lombard is also the naturally bigger man and a freakish athlete, to boot, which means he could be the first man to actually outmuscle Hendricks in the wrestling exchanges.

THE ODDS: Lombard (-150), Hendricks (+130)

THE PICK: This is not a happy fight, but it inspires a sort of morbid fascination. Hendricks, despite his losses, had a more impressive 2016 campaign than Lombard. He traded blows with Gastelum and still managed to absorb the 124 significant strikes landed by the younger fighter; and again, many felt Hendricks beat Magny with his wrestling, even though he was outstruck by a significant margin. No one knows how well Hendricks will fare at middleweight. Chances are his lifetime of tough weight cuts has taken its toll, and he has eaten hundreds of devastating strikes over the course of his MMA career. Still, Hendricks can push a pace quite well in a three-round fight. When he chooses to strike, he consistently lands upwards of five significant strikes per minute, whereas Lombard has never landed more than 60 per fight in the UFC and usually lands far fewer than that. It is a tentative choice, but the pick is Hendricks by unanimous decision.

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