Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lewis vs. Browne’

Featherweights

Sam Sicilia (15-7) vs. Gavin Tucker (9-0)

THE MATCHUP: This is a difficult fight to predict. I encounter those all the time as an analyst but usually the difficulty lies in the competitiveness of the fight. This could very well be one of those fights, but it is hard to tell because very little footage exists of Tucker. To analyze him, we have to take the route of the traveling fighter and look to the numbers.

Tucker is a finisher; that much is clear. He has not gone the distance since his pro debut in 2011. His record suggests an aggressive, well-rounded fighter, and the sparing fight footage backs that up. Four of Tucker’s wins have come via submission and four via knockout or TKO. The numbers also suggest a fighter with solid stamina who maintains his power in the later rounds. Tucker has finished two opponents in the third round and two in the second. His level of competition is appropriate for a fighter relatively new to the game, but it does not compare to the breed of fighter he will meet in the UFC. Combined, Tucker’s last five opponents had a record of 27-22-1 -- plenty of combined experience but not a great win-loss ratio.

Tucker could very well defeat Sicilia, who has struggled to put together any kind of meaningful streak in the UFC, but it is worth keeping his own level of competition in mind. Though Sicilia is just 5-6 in the UFC, his opponents’ combined record is a significantly more impressive 150-46-3. That means Sicilia faced opponents who won 75 percent of their bouts, compared to the measly 45 percent sported by Tucker’s competition; and if we consider that Sicilia’s opponents were mostly experienced UFC fighters themselves, it becomes clear that he has faced a much, much tougher breed of mixed martial artist.

Sicilia is more of a bruiser than anything, but he is dangerous nonetheless. He has scored eight knockouts and four submissions, although he also tends to get finished when he loses. Sicilia has shown flashes of an improved submission wrestling game in recent bouts, and though his back-and-forth guillotine-measuring contest with Yaotzin Meza was puzzling from a strategic perspective, Sicilia still managed to outclass an experienced grappler from a very good camp.

THE ODDS: Tucker (-155), Sicilia (+135)

THE PICK: Do not take this pick too seriously. Do not use it to make a bet. I am playing the averages when I say that Sicilia’s experience makes him a tough matchup for Tucker. Fighters like Tucker have surprising debuts all the time, and Sicilia was stopped in each of his last two fights. Until I see Tucker get the win, however, I will have no idea whether or not he is capable of doing so. The default pick is Sicilia by unanimous decision.

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