Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Condit vs. Alves’

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Charles Oliveira (19-4, 7-4 UFC) vs. Nik Lentz (25-6-2, 9-3-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two veteran featherweights meet once more after their first fight, a fun, back-and-forth affair contested at 155 pounds, ended in a no-contest nearly four years ago. This bout has been scheduled twice more since then, and both times it was canceled shortly beforehand, most recently February. Oliveira is now riding a three-fight winning streak, with the most recent victory coming over Jeremy Stephens in December.

Lentz rebounded from a one-sided loss to Chad Mendes with a win over Manny Gamburyan at UFC Fight Night “Brown vs. Silva.” The winner should have a claim on an elite opponent in the increasingly stacked featherweight division.

There is no denying Oliveira’s athleticism and raw talent. He is incredibly dangerous and capable of finishing in any phase, with a technically sound and complete muay Thai game featuring hard kicks and punching combinations at range. In the clinch, Oliveira throws vicious knees and elbows that he integrates with a sneaky and effective arsenal of trips and throws. On the ground, Oliveira really shines, having finished six of his seven UFC victories by submission. He is one of the most dynamic and venomous grapplers in all of MMA, with an almost indescribably tricky guard, ultra-quick hips and outstanding instincts in transition. There are very few fighters who can survive for long on the mat with Oliveira. In all phases, Oliveira works quickly and with pathological aggressiveness. The only real problem is a lack of durability, which his lack of particularly slick defensive skills exacerbates.

Lentz features a much more workmanlike pressure game. His Division I wrestling is his bread and butter, but he is also a surprisingly sound grappler with a heavy base from top position, a great feel for transitions and the confidence in his scrambling ability to consistently try for submissions. As Lentz has evolved over the years, he has also complemented his wrestling and infighting skills with a serviceable if not particularly dynamic striking arsenal that features a constant stream of punching combinations and round kicks. The fact that the Minnesotan pushes a punishing pace makes the rest of his game infinitely more effective.

BETTING ODDS: Oliveira (-260), Lentz (+220)

THE PICK: Lentz is game and durable, and if their first meeting is any predictor, he will be perfectly willing to engage Oliveira in every phase. Unfortunately for “The Carny,” Oliveira is substantially more dynamic, especially at range and as a wrestler, than he was at the time of their first fight. While Lentz will survive and even have some success in the transitions early in the fight, he will be playing with fire unless he stays off the mat entirely, and I think Oliveira will lock up a choke in a scramble. The pick is Oliveira by submission in the second round.

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