Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Condit vs. Alves’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

K.J. Noons (13-7, 2-1 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (10-2-1, 0-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Oliveira steps up on short notice to replace Yan Cabral, who went down with a bout of dengue fever. The Brazilian debuted on short notice in March against Gilbert Burns and put on a strong performance before succumbing to a late armbar from the Blackzilians’ blue-chipper. The veteran Noons has been around a long time and has fought outstanding competition, most recently going to a no-contest with Daron Cruickshank and knocking out Sam Stout.

This has all the makings of a great action fight between two talented strikers.

Noons is a striker by trade -- and a pretty good one. A former professional boxer, his hands are his bread and butter. He packs a solid punch in addition to good technical skills and has a distinct preference for operating in the pocket. Elliptical kicks to the thigh set Noons’ distance, and he then works his way inside behind a crisp jab and long right hand to the body. Once in the pocket, he likes to change levels and roll under his opponent’s strikes, firing back with his left hook and straight right, but this leaves him vulnerable to knees and high kicks as he ducks down. Takedown defense is a strength, but Noons is a pure sprawl-and-brawler, with little to offer in terms of offensive wrestling or grappling in any capacity.

Oliveira is a fantastic athlete with great size and a rangy frame. He moves well at distance and takes good angles, delivering powerful kicks and punching combinations, both moving forward and on the counter. He mixes in hooks, straight rights and uppercuts in sequence, preventing his opponents from changing levels in the pocket and catching them as they attempt to circle out. Defense is likewise a strong suit, as Oliveira is rarely there to be hit and moves his head nicely. He is a strong defensive wrestler, especially against the cage, and can hit the occasional takedown of his own, particularly high-amplitude slams. Grappling is not Oliveira’s specialty, but his long frame gives him outstanding ground striking from the top, and his athleticism makes him an above-average scrambler, as well. He is less efficient with his movement and striking preferences than he might be and cardio could be a problem, but he is a dangerous fighter who is improving at a rapid rate.

THE PICK: While the scheduled bout with the grappling-first Cabral suited Noons’ skill sets, Oliveira is a much tougher matchup. He is fast, powerful and well-equipped to deal with Noons’ striking repertoire, and his ability on the counter and to catch ducking opponents in the pocket is kryptonite to the American’s approach. Noons is durable, though, and I think he will survive to the final bell. The pick is Oliveira by decision.

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