Preview: UFC Fight Night 242 ‘Burns vs. Brady’

Women’s Flyweights

#8 WFLW | Natalia Silva (17-5-1, 5-0 UFC) vs. #11 WP4P | Jessica Andrade (26-12, 17-10 UFC)

ODDS: Silva (-298), Andrade (+240)

Silva has spent the last two years looking like one of the flyweight division’s top prospects, and she gets a chance to break into contender status in this co-main event. Silva didn’t have much buzz going into her UFC debut in 2022. She had certainly won enough on the regional scene to earn the shot, but her success mostly came against subpar competition, and whatever momentum she did have was dampened by injuries delaying her debut by two years. However, immediately upon her first trip to the Octagon, it became apparent that Silva is lightning-fast, a skill she used to great effect in taking apart Jasmine Jasudavicius over three rounds. Silva’s decision making sometimes isn’t the best—her willingness to wrestle with the much stronger but slower Tereza Bleda was a baffling choice—but that didn’t matter much in her rise through the ranks, thanks to her ability to land offense and get out of dodge essentially at will. Silva’s February win over Viviane Araujo was the first time that the Brazilian didn’t look outstanding, which isn’t much of a surprise. The intrigue of the matchup involved Silva facing someone with the same level of athleticism, and she did well to land the best offense during a middling three-round fight. That might be a different story against a countrywoman and former strawweight champion in Andrade, a two-division threat who moves back up to flyweight for this assignment.

Andrade started her UFC career as a raw bantamweight back in 2013, but things didn’t truly pop for “Bate Estaca” until she moved down to 115 pounds, somehow carrying all of her power in the process. Andrade’s technique could be lacking at times, but her combination of knockout power and physical strength only made that a factor once she faced the divisional elite. Even then, she managed to have a brief reign as champion after slamming Rose Namajunas on her head in 2019. After getting frozen out of the strawweight title picture, Andrade made a quick run up to an unsuccessful title challenge against Valentina Shevchenko at 125 pounds. From there, she settled in as a violent utility woman, bouncing between the two divisions as opportunity dictated while hoping one of those two title pictures would break her way. After an excellent performance against Lauren Murphy to kick off 2023, it did look for a bit like Andrade’s active schedule and violent style was suddenly catching up to her, as she looked unimpressive and lost at times in three straight losses. However, she ended the year on a high note in taking apart Mackenzie Dern, and after eking out a win over Marina Rodriguez at UFC 300 in April, Andrade looks to be fully back in terms of her status as a potential contender. The Rodriguez fight could be a bit instructive, as Andrade struggled with the Thai Brasil rep’s length and offense from range for most of the fight, but she was able to score the split decision victory by making her own moments of offense count for plenty of impact. This fight figures to have a similar dynamic. Silva might not have Rodriguez’s size, but she can instead effectively pick off Andrade by leveraging that massive speed advantage. The end result could be another coinflip type of fight, where Andrade might win rounds based on a few big moments, but the read is that Silva can stay ahead of the former champion more often than not. The pick is Silva via decision.

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Burns vs. Brady
Silva vs. Andrade
Garcia vs. Nelson
Schnell vs. Durden
Peek vs. Ashmoz
Rong vs. Padilla
The Prelims