Preview: UFC Fight Night 153 ‘Gustafsson vs. Smith’

Light Heavyweights

Volkan Oezdemir (15-4) vs. Ilir Latifi (14-6)

ODDS: Oezdemir (-130), Latifi (+110)

The UFC apparently liked the unlikely-former-title-challenger-meets-Swedish-favorite dynamic so much that the promotion booked it twice. Anthony Smith’s run towards top contender status was unlikely, but it has nothing on Oezdemir’s 2017 campaign, which saw the Switzerland native go from regional heavyweight contender to a UFC title fight in just three bouts. Oezdemir debuted with a win over Ovince St. Preux that was not particularly impressive. Neither man looked all that good, and the consensus seemed to be that St. Preux should have earned the decision anyway. However, given St. Preux’s status, the win was enough to earn Oezdemir a high ranking, which became a bit of a running joke. The thought was that he would lose his next fight against an actual contender and go down as a weird blip on the radar. Instead, he managed to win his next two bouts against Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa in a combined 70 seconds. The Cirkunov win was thanks to a perfectly placed punch as the Latvian came charging in, while Manuwa grew lazy in the clinch and suffered a sudden knockout because of it. That somehow left Oezdemir as the next title challenger to Daniel Cormier, and ever since, it has been a case of the Swiss upstart’s luck evening out. Oezdemir was simply outclassed by Cormier, which was followed by a loss that laid bare all of his flaws. He consistently moves forward, looking for either big strikes or clinches, but against Smith, Oezdemir completely gassed, making himself yet another victim of a “Lionheart” comeback performance. On the plus side, Oezdemir has started 2019 looking much better, as he put on a solid performance against Dominick Reyes. However, that fight still resulted in another close loss, so facing a four-fight losing streak, “No Time” badly needs a win here against Latifi.

Latifi figured to be a strange footnote in his own right. After teammate Alexander Gustafsson was hurt the week of a 2013 card in Sweden, “The Sledgehammer” stepped in on short notice to become an unlikely headliner against Gegard Mousasi. Latifi did not show much in that bout but soon carved out a niche as an entertaining talent, clanging overmatched foes with big knockouts and clamping on the occasional power submission. Eventually, he racked up enough wins to enter the fringes of contender status since he can be a difficult style matchup. The knockout power is always dangerous, and Latifi’s strength and stout build make it tough on opponents who seek to wrestle with him. Latifi can be figured out, though, as his low-output style often makes him dependent on the big finish. In his last fight, Corey Anderson managed to stay relatively cautious and win a decision. However, in a division this thin, Latifi is far from done as a relevant fighter, and a win over Oezdemir would get him right back in the thick of things.

If his improved performance against Reyes is any indication, Oezdemir should be able to win the balance of this fight, as he is the quicker and longer fighter, has more tools and throws out enough activity to win rounds. The main question, though, is if Oezdemir can keep that up for 15 minutes or if he gets put out before the fight can go to the scorecards. If Oezdemir stays patient, he can coast this one out, but that does not seem to be his style. While his gas tank looked better against Reyes, he figures to face a much more physically taxing fight against Latifi, especially if Oezdemir looks to take things into the clinch. This should be a bit of a mess for as long as it lasts, but it is easy to see Oezdemir overextending himself, much like he did against Smith, and setting himself up for a late knockout. The pick is Latifi via third-round stoppage.

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